ilmscore | "Do NOT Buy A House!" (Warren Buffett's Final Warning)

"Do NOT Buy A House!" (Warren Buffett's Final Warning)

Predictions from this Video

Total: 10
Correct: 4
Incorrect: 3
Pending: 3
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Warren Buffett has changed his view and no longer considers real estate an attractive investment.
"During his most recent shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett said that he no longer sees real estate as an attractive investment."
Warren Buffett's Real Estate Investment Stance
Incorrect
Warren Buffett believes the stock market offers more opportunities and is easier to invest in compared to real estate due to less negotiation and time commitment.
"It's a lot easier to make money in the stock market than it is with real estate. Or as he says, it's so much harder than stocks in terms of negotiation of deals, time spent. There's so much more opportunity in security market than in real estate."
Real Estate vs. Stock Market Investment Difficulty
Pending
Since 1928, the stock market has historically averaged a 9.8% annual return with reinvested dividends, requiring minimal effort from investors.
"Like just consider that since 1928, the stock market has averaged a 9.8% a year with dividends reinvested. This is without any work, no management, and no borrowing. Just buy a single fund, take a few seconds, don't pay our hands if the market falls, and do nothing."
Historical Stock Market Returns
Incorrect
In 2012, Warren Buffett was interested in buying real estate, attracted by the low fixed interest rates of 3% on 30-year mortgages.
"The last time Warren Buffett even considered buying real estate was back in 2012. And he said it himself. Part of the appeal was low interest rates fixed for 30 years. Under certain conditions, borrowing at 3% from a bank makes a lot of sense."
Warren Buffett's Real Estate Purchase Consideration in 2012
Pending
Real estate transactions are more complex and time-consuming due to dealing with individual owners and extensive negotiation, unlike the quick and anonymous nature of stock market trades.
"You're dealing with a single owner. To them, it's an enormous decision. When you walk down to the New York Stock Exchange, you can do billions of dollars worth of business, totally anonymous, and you can do it in 5 minutes. And the trades are complete when they're complete. In real estate, when you make a deal, then people start negotiating more things and more things, and it's a whole different game."
Real Estate Transaction Difficulty
Correct
An investment of $50,000 in the S&P 500 index in 1995 would have grown to over $94,000, while a comparable housing investment would be worth $844,000 before accounting for associated expenses.
"Instead of putting $50,000 down on a $250,000 home in 1995, an investment in the stock market would be worth over $94,000. Compare that to housing, which has appreciated 4.3% and that would leave you with $844,000, not including the expense of maintenance, property taxes, insurance, and repairs."
S&P 500 vs. Housing Investment (1995-2025)
Incorrect
Everyday investors can achieve significant returns in real estate by treating it as an investment and dedicating substantial time and effort, though it requires more work than stock market investing.
"And for everyday investors, it is possible to make a significant amount of money in real estate if you're buying as an investment and you're prepared to put in a lot of time and effort to run it successfully. Yes, it is significantly more work than stocks, but the way I see it, it's not exactly a one-to-one comparison."
Real Estate Investment for Everyday Investors
Pending
Real estate primarily serves as a long-term hedge against inflation and a place to live. Buying a home with the intention of staying for at least a decade can be financially sound.
"most real estate is simply a long-term hedge against inflation and a way to put a roof over your head. That's it. If you're looking for a place that you could move into yourself that you plan to keep for at least a decade, then yes, buying can make good financial sense."
Real Estate as a Long-Term Hedge and Shelter
Correct
At current market conditions, most real estate investments would not generate positive cash flow and could result in significant monthly losses, making them difficult to sustain compared to past favorable conditions.
"At today's levels, none of them would cash flow and I would be losing thousands of dollars a month. So, this was only sustainable when conditions were good, and now it's really difficult."
Real Estate Investment Profitability at Today's Rates
Correct
Warren Buffett's potential real estate purchases in 2012 were contingent on significant price drops (30-50%) and historically low interest rates.
"This is also why Warren Buffett would have bought real estate in 2012 after prices had already fallen 30 to 50% when interest rates were at their record lows."
Warren Buffett's 2012 Real Estate Purchase Conditions
Correct
The speaker believes that the profitability of real estate investments is primarily determined at the time of purchase rather than at the time of sale.
"Personally, I believe that in real estate, you tend to make most of your money when you buy, not necessarily when you sell."
Real Estate Investment Value at Purchase
Pending