ilmscore | How The Global Economy Could Collapse (Instantly)

How The Global Economy Could Collapse (Instantly)

Published: 2025-06-23
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 4
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 2
Prediction
Topic
Status
JPMorgan predicts oil prices could reach $130 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is sustained closed.
"JP Morgan believes that we could see oil rise as high as $130 a barrel in the event it's closed for a sustained period."
Oil Prices
Incorrect
The Federal Reserve estimates a $10/barrel increase in crude oil could lead to a 0.2% rise in inflation.
"The Federal Reserve estimates that every $10 a barrel jump in crude oil prices could result in.2% more inflation."
Inflation
Pending
Increased inflation due to higher energy costs is likely to cause the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
"higher inflation numbers, which would result in the Fed keeping higher interest rates for longer, which increases the cost of borrowing."
Interest Rates
Correct
An former energy adviser suggests that oil shipping disruptions could last weeks or months, contrary to the oil market's expectation of a quick resolution by the US Navy.
"the former energy adviser just said that shipping could be interrupted for weeks or months rather than the oil market's view that the US Navy would resolve the situation in hours or days."
Oil Supply
Correct
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is expected to provide enough oil to sustain the country if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, until it can be reopened.
"this suggests that if the straight were closed off, the United States would have enough oil to sustain itself until hopefully the straight is opened back up again."
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Pending
The speaker believes the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz actually shutting down is very low, and current threats are likely baseless.
"I personally think that the chance of it actually shutting down is pretty much slim to none. And any threats we see are probably baseless and not actually going to happen."
Strait of Hormuz Closure
Correct
If the Strait of Hormuz were closed, it would likely not remain so for an extended period due to strong international pressure to reopen it.
"if they closed it down, it probably wouldn't be closed for long because they would have the full force of the United States and the rest of the world doing anything they can to get it back open again."
Strait of Hormuz Closure Duration
Correct