More Rate Hikes?? FED’s Press Conference REVEALS This!!
Published: 2023-08-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-08-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are predicted to cause significant market volatility across various asset classes.
"this could cause serious Market volatility and not just in stocks and crypto"
Pending
An inflation shock is anticipated, which could compel the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates beyond current investor expectations.
"we are starting to see early signs of an inflation shock that could force the FED to raise rates higher than investors expect"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates before next year, with decisions heavily dependent on future inflation and jobs data.
"the FED will not cut rates until next year at the earliest but It ultimately depends on all the upcoming inflation and jobs data"
Pending
The Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates when inflation nears 2%, but this is unlikely to occur before 2025.
"The FED could start cutting rates as inflation approaches 2 percent but this may not happen until 2025."
Pending
Federal Reserve staff are no longer forecasting an upcoming recession.
"the FED staff are no longer forecasting a recession"
Pending
Due to base effects from the previous year's CPI decline, even if current CPI remains stable, it could appear as an increase in the upcoming reports.
"CPI could stay exactly where it is but because it had fallen a year previously it would show up as an increase"
Pending
Estimates suggest that CPI could rise back above 4% in the coming months.
"CPI could Spike back over four percent by some estimates"
Pending
A spike in CPI could lead the Federal Reserve to implement additional interest rate hikes.
"this would force the FED to react accordingly ... increasing the chance of additional rate hikes"
Pending
Longer-term interest rates are predicted to increase as investors demand higher compensation for anticipated future inflation.
"it could cause longer term interest rates to spike as investors seek to be compensated for higher levels of inflation in the future"
Pending
US bond prices are predicted to crash, leading to widespread financial system volatility.
"this would cause U.S bond prices to crash which could cause volatility across the entire Financial System"
Pending
The combined effect of the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and the Treasury issuing long-term debt will be magnified.
"If the Fed continues to roll off its balance sheet and the treasury keeps selling longer term debt the effect will be magnified"
Pending
Increasing food and energy prices are a key factor that could cause the CPI to spike above 4%.
"Rising food and energy prices ... could lead to a CPI that could Spike back over four percent"
Pending
The Federal Reserve desires to observe a softening in the labor market.
"the FED wants to see softening in the labor market"
Pending
The US economy appears to be accelerating rather than slowing down.
"the economy seems to be accelerating not slowing"
Pending
Excessive economic growth is expected to lead to higher inflation and, consequently, higher interest rates.
"too much growth means more inflation and of course that means higher interest rates"
Pending
The Federal Reserve intends to avoid providing excessive forward guidance in its policy communications.
"the FED does not want to provide too much forward guidance right now"
Pending
The Federal Reserve believes its current policy has not been sufficiently restrictive for a sufficient duration.
"Our policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough."
Pending
Core inflation remains at approximately 5%.
"core inflation is still around five percent"
Pending
Core inflation levels are considered too high.
"core inflation is still too high"
Pending
A reduction in core inflation is necessary.
"core inflation still needs to come down"
Pending
US bonds serve as collateral for all financial loans.
"U.S bonds are used as collateral for all of the financial loans"
Pending
A crash in US bond prices is expected to trigger volatility throughout the entire financial system.
"this would cause volatility across the entire Financial System"
Pending
If stock markets continue their rally, the Federal Reserve will be compelled to further increase interest rates.
"if the markets continue to Rally ... the FED will have to raise rates even more"
Pending
Russia's withdrawal from the Ukrainian grain deal is anticipated to result in increased food inflation.
"Russia's decision to pull out of the Ukrainian grain deal will lead to higher food inflation"
Pending
The repercussions of Russia's exit from the grain deal are not currently impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike decisions.
"it's not affecting the fed's rate hikes at least not for now"
Pending
A rise in oil prices is attributed to supply restrictions from nations like Saudi Arabia and a resurgence in economic activity globally.
"oil prices in general have also started to rise and that's probably due to a combination of restricted Supply from oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia and a Resurgence in economic activity in the U.S and elsewhere"
Pending
The US Treasury is reportedly planning to issue longer-term government debt later in the current month.
"the treasury is reportedly planning on issuing longer-term government debt later this month"
Pending
The impact of the US Treasury's issuance of longer-term government debt on the markets remains to be seen.
"it'll be interesting to see how that affects markets if at all"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's current stance is to avoid committing to specific future policy actions.
"they do not want to commit to doing or not doing anything"
Pending
Jerome Powell's past statements about discontinuing forward guidance have not been consistently followed, implying potential future market uncertainty.
"this isn't the first time Jerome said the FED would stop giving forward guidance ... he didn't keep his word"
Pending
A rapid increase in CPI could elevate inflation expectations among the general public.
"a sudden spike in the CPI could lead to an increase in inflation expectations for the average person"
Pending
Rising inflation expectations will necessitate a reaction from the Federal Reserve.
"this would force the FED to react accordingly"
Pending
The Federal Reserve desires to observe a softening in the labor market.
"the FED wants to see softening in the labor market"
Pending
The risk of a wage-price spiral is considered low due to the observed slowdown in wage growth.
"the risk of this is low given the aforementioned slowing of wages"
Pending
Further progress is needed to achieve balance in the housing market.
"there's still work to do on that front"
Pending
The banking system is characterized as sound and resilient.
"the banking system was sound and resilient"
Pending
Contrary to the Federal Reserve's expectations, the banking crisis has not yet led to a significant reduction in bank lending.
"the Fed was expecting the banking crisis to cause a significant reduction in Bank lending but apparently this hasn't happened at least not yet"
Pending
Second-quarter US GDP figures exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic growth.
"U.S GDP figures for Q2 came in much higher than expected"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff has not yet caused any market disruption.
"the fed's balance sheet runoff hasn't caused any Market disruption"
Pending
The US Treasury's actions to replenish its bank account could potentially withdraw liquidity from the markets.
"the treasury's move to refill its bank account could suck money out of the markets"
Pending
The minutes from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting are expected to be significant for the markets.
"the minutes of the fed's meetings are released three weeks after the meetings ... the next Edition could be a big deal for the markets"
Pending
The slow movement of core CPI raises doubts about its reliability as a leading indicator for headline CPI.
"core cpi's slow movement also makes Jerome's claim of core CPI being a leading indicator for headline CPI a bit questionable"
Pending
Inflation disproportionately affects the lower class, while the middle and upper classes are better equipped to handle higher interest rates.
"inflation is hurting the lower class the middle and upper class can put up with higher rates"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's future rate decisions will be data-dependent, with rate hikes if the economy or inflation accelerates, and pauses or pivots if they slow.
"if the economy or inflation accelerates we will raise rates and if the economy or inflation slows we will pause or pivot"
Pending
The unemployment rate remains at a low of approximately 3.6%, a multi-year low.
"unemployment Still Remains at a multi-year low of around 3.6 percent"
Pending
The economic impact of interest rate changes, known as the lag effect, can take between six months and two years to materialize.
"the lag effect can take as little as six months and as long as two years"
Pending
The economy is entering a period where the effects of high interest rates are expected to become noticeable.
"we're entering a period where the stress of high interest rates should start to affect the economy"
Pending
US banks have decreased their lending activities as a consequence of the banking crisis in March.
"U.S banks have reduced their lending activities because of the banking crisis back in March"
Pending
A reduction in loan issuance could lead to a faster economic slowdown than the inherent lag effect of monetary policy.
"reducing loan issuance could slow the economy even faster than the lag effect"
Pending
Inflation rates remain significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
"inflation is still much higher than the fed's two percent Target"
Pending
Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is subject to high volatility due to the inclusion of food and energy costs.
"headline CPI is very volatile because it includes the costs of food and energy"
Pending
There are indications that the costs of food and energy are starting to rise again.
"the costs of food and energy appear to be increasing again"
Pending
An increase in food and energy costs suggests that CPI figures in the upcoming months are likely to exceed expectations.
"this foreshadows higher than expected CPI prints in the coming months"
Pending
The stock market is experiencing a strong rally, while the cryptocurrency market is lagging behind.
"the stock market continues to rip higher with crypto lagging behind"
Pending
The broadening nature of the stock market rally indicates it is likely more than just a temporary bear market rally.
"the stock market rally is reportedly broadening a sign that this is more than a bear Market rally"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has now fallen below its pre-banking crisis level.
"the fed's balance sheet is finally back below what it was prior to the banking crisis"
Pending
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by incoming economic data.
"their decisions will depend on the data"
Pending
Two jobs reports are expected to be released before the Federal Reserve's next meeting in September.
"there will be two jobs reports ... between now and then"
Pending
Two inflation reports will be released before the Federal Reserve's next meeting in September.
"two inflation reports between now and then"
Pending
An acceleration of the economy poses a risk of increased inflation.
"economic re-acceleration creates a risk that there will be more inflation"
Pending
The Federal Reserve requires more than just a few data points to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward trend.
"a couple of data points isn't sufficient for the FED to be confident that inflation is truly coming down"
Pending
The possibility exists that lower-than-expected CPI prints were an isolated occurrence.
"lower than expected CPI prints were a one-off"
Pending
A subsequent CPI print that is lower than expected could potentially lead to another pause in interest rate hikes.
"if a lower than expected CPI print next time would mean another pause"
Pending
Core inflation levels need to decrease further.
"core inflation is still needs to come down"
Pending
The sluggish movement of core CPI raises questions about its predictive power for headline CPI.
"core CPI's slow movement also makes Jerome's claim of core CPI being a leading indicator for headline CPI a bit questionable"
Pending
The combination of base effects and rising food costs may compel the Federal Reserve to take further action.
"base effects combined with Rising food costs will force the FED to do more"
Pending
The recent increase in energy and food costs might be a temporary phenomenon.
"the resurgence in energy and food costs could be short-lived"
Pending
The Federal Reserve aims to avoid offering excessive forward guidance on its future policy intentions.
"the FED does not want to provide too much forward guidance right now"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's reluctance to provide forward guidance is expected to increase market uncertainty.
"this will have the effect of creating more uncertainty in the markets"
Pending
There is uncertainty regarding whether the effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening have already been experienced or are still forthcoming.
"the effects of the fed's tightening have been felt already or if they're still coming"
Pending
The Federal Reserve believes that the full impact of its monetary tightening measures has yet to be realized.
"the FED still thinks that the effects are yet to be felt"
Pending
Inflation appears to be decreasing organically, driven by both reduced demand and the restoration of supply chains.
"inflation seems to be falling mostly on its own due to a combination of demand coming down and Supply coming back online"
Pending
Monetary policy has contributed to the decrease in inflation.
"monetary policy has also played a role"
Pending
The factors influencing core inflation are being questioned.
"what does affect core inflation"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is identified as the primary influence on core inflation.
"it's mostly the FED"
Pending
Increased unionization is predicted to result in higher wages and consequently, higher inflation.
"unionization would lead to wage increases and higher inflation"
Pending
Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are not anticipated before next year.
"the FED will not cut rates until next year at the earliest"
Pending
The Federal Reserve staff have revised their forecasts and are no longer predicting a recession.
"the FED staff are no longer forecasting a recession"
Pending
The opinion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds the most significance for economic forecasts.
"it's the FOMC's opinion that matters the most"
Pending
The FOMC's forecasts will not be available until the release of the next Summary of Economic Projections in September.
"We won't know what they're forecasting until the next summary of economic projections in September."
Pending
The Federal Reserve may commence interest rate cuts as inflation nears 2%, but this is not expected to occur before 2025.
"The FED could start cutting rates as inflation approaches 2 percent but this may not happen until 2025."
Pending
There is concern about the potential for further bank failures.
"whether more banks will collapse"
Pending
Contrary to the Federal Reserve's predictions, the banking crisis has not yet resulted in a substantial decrease in bank lending.
"the Fed was expecting the banking crisis to cause a significant reduction in Bank lending but apparently this hasn't happened at least not yet"
Pending
The likelihood of a wage-price spiral is considered low due to the observed deceleration in wage growth.
"the risk of this is low given the aforementioned slowing of wages"
Pending
The Federal Reserve desires to observe a cooling or softening in the labor market.
"the FED wants to see softening in the labor market"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's desire for labor market softening is interpreted by some as an indication that they still anticipate or desire a recession.
"some would say that this means the FED still wants to see a recession"
Pending
Inflation's negative impact is most acutely felt by the lower class, while the middle and upper classes are better positioned to withstand higher interest rates.
"Inflation is hurting the lower class the middle and upper class can put up with higher rates"
Pending
The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will provide insights into the deliberations and potential doubts surrounding the recent decision.
"we will all see when the minutes are released"
Pending
The current bull market in stocks is a factor that influences the Federal Reserve's decision-making process.
"the ongoing bull market in stocks affects the fed's decisions"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is actively monitoring the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).
"the Fed is monitoring the fed's bank term funding program or btfp"
Pending
The housing market is moving towards a state of better balance.
"the housing market is coming back into better balance"
Pending
Russia's withdrawal from the Ukrainian grain deal is expected to cause an increase in food inflation.
"Russia's decision to pull out of the Ukrainian grain deal will lead to higher food inflation"
Pending
The impact of Russia's exit from the Ukrainian grain deal on food inflation and its subsequent effect on the Federal Reserve's rate hike decisions is being closely watched.
"Russia's decision to pull out of the Ukrainian grain deal ... affect the fed's rate hikes"
Pending
Rising food and energy prices are critical components that can significantly influence the CPI.
"Rising food and energy prices, which are key components of the CPI"
Pending
Petrol prices in the United States have begun to increase.
"petrol prices in the United States have started to rise"
Pending
Global oil prices have also started to increase.
"oil prices in general have also started to rise"
Pending
A resurgence in economic activity within the US and globally is contributing to market dynamics.
"a Resurgence in economic activity in the U.S and elsewhere"
Pending
Adverse weather conditions are leading to higher energy demand and reduced crop yields.
"weather conditions have also resulted in increased energy demand and lower crop yields"
Pending
Due to a decrease in CPI last summer, current and upcoming CPI figures might appear abnormally high because of year-over-year comparisons (base effects).
"the CPI started coming down last summer the CPI figures we see between now and the end of the year could be abnormally high due to the relative comparison"
Pending
The market has likely already factored in the impact of base effects on inflation data.
"these base effects have probably been priced in"
Pending
Despite market pricing, a sudden surge in CPI could still trigger higher inflation expectations.
"this doesn't change the fact that a sudden spike in the CPI could lead to an increase in inflation expectations"
Pending
An increase in inflation expectations will compel the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy response.
"this would force the FED to react accordingly"
Pending
Certain estimates suggest that the CPI could rise above 4%.
"a CPI that could Spike back over four percent by some estimates"
Pending
The possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is increasing.
"increasing the chance of additional rate hikes"
Pending
Investors will demand higher returns to compensate for anticipated future inflation.
"investors seek to be compensated for higher levels of inflation in the future"
Pending
US bond prices are predicted to experience a significant decline.
"U.S bond prices to crash"
Pending
There is a need to be vigilant for unforeseen 'black swan' events that could emerge as a consequence of a potential resurgence in inflation.
"what we need to be on the lookout for is black swans that could arise because of a potential Resurgence in inflation"
Pending
Potential black swan events stemming from a resurgence in inflation might not be solely financial, but could also manifest as social or political disruptions.
"these black swans may not even be Financial in nature they could be social or political"
Pending
Markets can sustain irrational behavior for longer periods than an individual can maintain financial solvency.
"the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Pending