ECONOMIST WARNS: A Great Depression Is Coming In America | Peter Schiff x Jaspreet Singh
Published: 2024-04-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-04-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker believes that current economic data may be inaccurate due to flaws in compilation and a tendency for government revisions.
"I think that the data some of it is is is is likely fudged but I think a lot of it has to do with flaws in the way the data is compiled and the government is notorious for going backwards and making very substantial revisions."
Pending
The speaker predicts that current economic data indicating strength will be revised downwards, revealing a weaker economy than currently perceived.
"I think it's certainly possible that a lot of the data that people are pointing to now as proof of the strength of the economy is going to be revised and maybe it will show that the economy wasn't strong at all but I think there's a lot of other data that show that the economy is weak we just don't recognize it"
Pending
Exploding budget and trade deficits are seen as indicators of a weak US economy, contrary to claims of strength.
"we have record uh budget deficits and trade deficits that we have a strong economy would be generating more revenue for the US government and more exports and so if you look at those accounts the twin deficits are exploding it's a weak economy that generates budget and trade deficits"
Pending
Record low savings rates, high household debt, and high credit card debt suggest an economy in distress, as Americans are relying on debt instead of saving.
"the savings rate at a record low basically household debt at a record high High credit card debt at a record high uh these are signs of economy in distress if Americans were doing better they would not be relying on debt in fact they would be paying down their debt and increasing their savings"
Pending
The creation of part-time jobs is primarily benefiting individuals who already hold multiple jobs, indicating a trend of moonlighting driven by the necessity to cover bills.
"most of the jobs that are being created these part-time jobs are going to people who already have one or two jobs Moonlighting is at a record high people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to pay the bills"
Pending
The speaker believes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) underestimates the true extent of inflation, suggesting inflation is more severe than officially reported.
"we still have an inflation problem I think that the CPI broadly understates the severity of that problem by Design so I think we have stronger inflation than we acknowledge"
Pending
Underestimating inflation leads to an overestimation of economic growth.
"if you're underestimating inflation at the same time you overestimate economic growth"
Pending
President Biden's unpopularity is attributed to the perceived poor state of the economy, despite media portrayals of economic strength.
"I think that's why President Biden is as unpopular as he is he's the most unpopular sitting president in the history of these popularity polls and if the economy was so good why wouldn't Biden be getting the credit"
Pending
Voters' negative perception of President Biden's economic handling, evidenced by his lowest scores in this area, suggests the economy is not as strong as proponents claim.
"the actual questions where Biden scores the lowest is on the economy so that that's where he's got his worst marks and so I don't think the voters would be so negative on Biden's handling of the economy if the economy were good"
Pending
The current economic situation is described as stagflation, with a dramatic increase in the cost of living since President Biden took office.
"it's really stagflation the cost of living has gone up dramatically since Biden has been in office"
Pending
The speaker predicts a worsening economic situation.
"things are bad and they're about to get a lot worse"
Pending
Americans are reaching their debt limits, leading to maxed-out credit cards and rising delinquency rates.
"Americans are getting tapped out on their debt levels people are maxing out credit cards delinquency rates are starting to rise"
Pending
The speaker critiques the current economic system, arguing that spending-driven growth is unsustainable and that economies should be driven by savings and production.
"spending should not be what drives an economy that's the inherent problem we have a bubble what should drive an economy is savings and production"
Pending
Americans are heavily indebted, and interest rates are too low. If rates were raised to appropriate levels, both individuals and the government would face severe financial distress.
"Americans are already leveraged up to the hilt and interest rates are still too low and if interest rates went to where they needed to be pretty much everybody would be broke including the US government"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to maintain artificially low interest rates, which are considered too low given accelerating inflation.
"I think the FED is ultimately going to keep rates artificially low and I think they're still too low I mean the FED claims that the rates are uh restrictive they're not syy inflation is accelerating the rates are still too low"
Pending
Raising interest rates to appropriate levels in the current debt-ridden economy would lead to its collapse due to debt servicing costs.
"if they raise them to an appropriate level assuming they even know where that level is I think you know the the debt uh uh ridden economy would implode with the weight of that debt service"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is in a self-created predicament, as its prolonged period of low interest rates has led to widespread debt accumulation.
"the FED is kind of trapped between a rock and a hard place that that it created because the reason everybody has so much debt is because the FED kept interest rates uh so low for for so long"
Pending
Current interest rates are considered normal, but due to high debt and inflation, they need to be significantly higher.
"rates are getting back to normal you know they're not even high but given how much debt we have and how big the inflation problem is rates need to be more than just high they need to be very high"
Pending
Forward-looking indicators, such as soaring commodity prices, suggest that inflation will continue to rise and impact the CPI later in the year.
"the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so uh these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year"
Pending
Inflation is predicted to return to 10%, rather than decrease to the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.
"I think the inflation is going to continue going upwards closer to the 10% number back where we were in 2021 2022 rather than go to the 2% of the Federal Reserve Bank is asking for"
Pending
The speaker believes the official inflation rate significantly understates the actual price increases, suggesting a true inflation rate closer to 18% when the reported rate was 9%.
"there's like no chance that that's going to happen and you know ultimately the rates going higher but what's even worse is that the official rate probably only captures about half the actual price increases so when you're at 9% like we were at we were probably closer to 18%"
Pending
The reported inflation suggests a $100 grocery bill in 2020 would cost $122 today, but the speaker believes the actual cost for the average person is considerably higher.
"if I about $100 uh part of groceries back in 2020 it should cost me about $122 today versus for the average person I think it's costing significantly more than that today"
Pending
Discretionary spending will decrease as more income is allocated to essential expenses like food, electricity, insurance, and energy.
"people are going to have to give up on a lot of their discretionary spending because that money is going to go for food it's going to go for electricity Insurance energy you know maintenance"
Pending
The rising cost of living is expected to outpace wage growth, and many Americans may face lower wages due to job loss and replacement with lower-paying positions.
"the cost of everything is going to go up and that increase is going to far out pays higher wages in fact a lot of Americans could actually have lower wages because they'll lose their job and they'll have to replace it with a lower paying job"
Pending
Consumers will reduce spending, with some opting for lower-quality food options due to increased costs.
"people are going to be cutting back on a lot of things now some people will just uh you know spend more for their food and cut back other places but some people will have to just cut back on their food and maybe they they won't eat less they'll just eat a lower quality diet"
Pending
The speaker believes the US is likely already in a recession, which could be more severe than anticipated, despite current data suggesting otherwise.
"this recession might be worse than what people might expect a lot of people don't even think we're going to have a recession they think we've avoided even a soft Landing but I I think that again we're probably already in a recession it's just that the numbers don't reveal that yet"
Pending
The economy is expected to be weaker and inflation stronger than anticipated, leading to a stagflationary scenario of weak growth and high inflation.
"the economy is a lot weaker than people expect and inflation is a lot stronger instead of this Goldy loock scenario that people Envision it's it's the worst case scenario because you've got weak growth and inflation at the same time"
Pending
Massive inflation resulted from coordinated efforts between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to inject money into the economy.
"we had massive inflation Unleashed by the government uh it was the treasury in you know tandem with the Federal Reserve working together to flood the economy with inflation and now we're experiencing the consequences of all that new money being created and spent into the economy"
Pending
Prices will continue to rise significantly as they adjust to the increased money supply. Wages and savings have not kept pace, leading to a decrease in overall purchasing power and making people poorer.
"prices are going higher they're going much higher we're still early in the process where prices are adjusting to a new much higher level given all the the new money but you know people's wages hav't kept pace and of course people's savings uh you know don't you know aren't tied to uh the inflation so uh everybody is being made a lot poorer"
Pending
Inflation benefits the wealthy who own assets and have debt, while the general public suffers financially.
"the people who are benefiting are the very rich who had a lot of debt and owned a lot of assets real assets like you know stocks or real estate uh inflation serve them well but the general public uh you know was was harmed substantially"
Pending
While Social Security cost-of-living adjustments have lagged reported inflation, investors have seen significant wealth growth, contrasting with the declining financial situation of the average person.
"the Social Security cost of living increases over the last 5 years which came up right around 22% the reported inflation over that same period CPI was around 20 5% versus the SNP has grown by around 75% so people who like whater mentioned the investors have become significantly wealthier over the last 5 years versus the average person has become poorer"
Pending
The reported CPI increase likely represents a doubling of the actual increase in the cost of living.
"the 25% increase in the CPI probably equates to a 50% increase in the actual cost of living"
Pending
Increased Social Security payments contribute to the deficit, forcing the government to print more money, which fuels inflation, leading to a self-perpetuating cycle of higher payments and more inflation.
"those increased payments directly add to the deficit because the government you know doesn't raise taxes to make higher payments to Social Security uh and so they end up having to print more money to pay for the colas which creates even more inflation which creates bigger colas and so it's like a process that feeds on itself"
Pending
Historically, recessions have led to a decline in asset prices like stocks and real estate.
"recession generally means asset prices stock prices real estate prices would move lower that's what we've seen happen in previous recessions"
Pending
High inflation may prevent significant drops in stock and real estate prices, although overvalued tech stocks could see declines.
"if there's a lot of inflation this time which is what I expect um the stock prices and real estate prices may actually not come down that much I mean there may be some individual stocks that do like a lot of overpriced tech stocks so those stocks could come down but the overall stock market may not come down that much real estate market may not come down that much much uh because of inflation"
Pending
There may be significant declines in the value of US financial assets and real estate.
"you may see more significant declines in the value of us Financial assets and and real estate"
Pending
High inflation may prevent the government from using deficit spending and zero interest rates to stimulate the economy, as it has in the past.
"the government has been able to artificially Goose the economy with bigger de deficit spending and 0% interest rates but High inflation May prevent that from happening"
Pending
Due to past borrowing for stimulus and bailouts, the government may be unable to provide similar assistance during a future recession, meaning no help or bailouts for failing entities.
"this time we may not be able to do it again which means we're going to go through a recession where nobody gets any help from the government and nobody nobody who's failing gets a bailout"
Pending
Past government actions have exacerbated existing economic problems, merely postponing a future reckoning.
"the problems that we were dealing with at the time even bigger but we postponed the Day of Reckoning to some future date"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's traditional solution to economic problems has been inflation, with quantitative easing being a euphemism for this policy.
"because this the the economic solution that the FED has always come up with for for every problem was inflation in fact if you think about quantitative easing that's just a euphemism for inflation right"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is perceived as not genuinely fighting inflation, but merely pretending to do so, evidenced by its past actions of lowering interest rates to zero.
"the FED is not not really fighting inflation I mean it's a half-ass job at best it's pretending that it's fighting inflation but you know if it really was going to fight inflation it never would have lowered interest rates to zero in the first place"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's actions suggest it is not truly combating inflation, as evidenced by the premature cessation of rate hikes and indications of future rate cuts while rates remain too low.
"the FED has not really been fighting I it's pretending to fight and if it really was fighting inflation it wouldn't have stopped hiking rates they're still too low they would have had several more rate hikes they would not be indicating that rate cuts are around the corner when rates are still too low"
Pending
Continued government spending, which fuels demand and drives up prices, must be reduced.
"the big thing is government spending which hasn't stopped at all Governments send people money and they go out and buy stuff with it and that's bidding up prices so we have to reduce government spending"
Pending
Government spending is not decreasing because interest rates are still too low to incentivize such cuts.
"if rates were much higher the government would be cutting spending but they're not because rates are still too low"
Pending
Appropriate interest rates to combat inflation would trigger a financial crisis affecting both banks and the US government.
"if the FED raises interest rates to a level that might be appropriate to actually fight the inflation it caused that rate would be so high that it would cause a financial crisis that it would not only cause a crisis for the banks but for the US government itself"
Pending
If interest rates reach 14%, the annual cost of servicing the US national debt could rise to $4-5 trillion, potentially exceeding government tax revenue.
"the current debt service cost on the $35 trillion national debt right is about 1.1 trillion a year you know if the rates got up to where you're talking you know 14% I don't know be four trillion 5 trillion a year I mean the government would probably have to spend more to service the debt than it collects in taxes"
Pending
Within 1-1.5 years, annual interest payments on the national debt could reach $2 trillion, surpassing spending on Medicare and Social Security.
"even if rates just stay where they are in the low fives you know a year a year and a half from now the government will be spending two trillion a year on interest on the national debt that's more than it spends on Medicare or Social Security"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue creating inflation rather than fighting it, while publicly maintaining the pretense of inflation control.
"the FED is not going to fight inflation it's going to continue to create inflation but it can't be honest about that it can't tell the public what it's going to do it has to keep pretending it's going to do the opposite of what it's actually going to do"
Pending
Investors should recognize the clear signs of inflation and shift their assets away from dollars, treasuries, and bonds into gold.
"as an investor you got to be smart enough to read between those lines and you don't have to be that smart because the lines are pretty far apart and the writing is in bold uh and that's inflation and so people need to be getting out of dollars getting out of treasuries or uh Muni bonds or corporate bonds or things like that and buying gold"
Pending
Gold prices have approached $2400 and recently hit a new record high.
"Gold's just under 2400 uh you know near I hit a new record high overnight"
Pending
Individuals should invest in gold and silver and divest from the US dollar to protect against its potential collapse.
"people should be buying gold and silver they should be getting out of the dollar before the bottom drops out of the dollar"
Pending
An alternative to recession could be a direct descent into depression.
"look I guess we could bypass recession and go straight to depression you know I guess that's one way of doing it"
Pending
A recession might be avoided if sufficient money is printed and inflation is underreported, allowing GDP figures to appear to increase.
"we may not have a recession if they print enough money and create enough inflation the GDP could keep going up you know as long as they under report the inflation"
Pending
Reported GDP growth may be misleading, as it primarily reflects inflation rather than genuine economic expansion.
"higher GDP isn't going to mean anything to the people who actually live in the economy because it's really measuring inflation and not economic growth"
Pending
Government spending is identified as the primary driver of inflation, leading to the high cost of goods and services.
"inflation is how the government is paying for all of its spending so the reason that goods and services cost so much is because the government spends so much"
Pending
The government finances its programs through inflation, which disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes, as an alternative to directly raising taxes.
"no they tax everybody with inflation especially the middle class and the poor because the government has two ways of paying for the programs one is they could do it honestly and raise your taxes uh and then spend the money but that pisses off the people who have to pay the higher taxes so the other way is they just print money"
Pending
Government money creation and spending do not reduce individuals' nominal money holdings but rather diminish the purchasing power of that money.
"when they create money and spend that they're not taking your money you still have all your money the problem is they're taking the purchasing power away from your money"
Pending
The government effectively confiscates purchasing power rather than directly taking money, resulting in reduced buying power for individuals.
"the government takes your purchasing power instead of your money so instead of having less money my money just buys less"
Pending
Reducing government spending and size is necessary to address the problem of inflation, which is fueled by the government's need to finance its expenditures.
"we have a government problem and so to solve this government problem I.E inflation we need to cut government spending we need a smaller government so it doesn't have to create so much inflation to pay the bills"
Pending
The speaker opposed both bank and COVID-related bailouts, noting public opposition stemmed from the perception that these were primarily benefiting wealthy bankers.
"I was opposed to both the bailouts both the bank bailouts and the co bailouts right I think one of the reasons that the public was opposed to the bailouts is because it was the banks that were getting bailed out right the bankers the rich Bankers"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is implicated in the financial crisis, likening its role to a bartender serving drinks to a "drunk" Wall Street.
"Wall Street was drunk but don't forget who the bartender was right the Federal Reserve was serving up the drinks"
Pending
Public protests should have been directed at the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the White House, as these institutions were the root cause of the financial problems, not Wall Street itself.
"instead of protesting on Wall Street they should have been in Washington DC protesting the fed you know protesting at Congress or the White House they were the problem"
Pending
Government programs like the PPP are believed to have worsened economic problems and constituted the largest financial fraud in US history due to extensive fraudulent activity.
"all of these programs made the economic problems worse not better and the PPP program I think was named the largest financial fraud in American history with the amount of fraud that happened through that"
Pending
Enhanced unemployment benefits created an incentive for people to leave their jobs, as they could earn more by staying home than by working.
"the dumbest thing they did was if you lost your job you got like triple two to three times what you got when you had a job so we created an incentive for people to leave their jobs because they earned more money staying at home watching television and shopping on on Amazon than schlepping over to work every day"
Pending
The speaker asserts that the entire US banking system is fundamentally insolvent.
"our entire banking system is basically insolvent"
Pending
A significant increase in interest rates by the Fed would lead to numerous bank failures, exceeding those seen previously with institutions like Silicon Valley and Signature Bank.
"if the Fed raised interest rates to the level they need to be we would have a lot more failures uh than you know the ones that we had a year ago with Silicon Valley Signature Bank and you know a few others"
Pending
The current banking predicament is widespread, similar to the subprime crisis, despite official claims of containment.
"I think all the banks are in the same predicament I think it's like you know the subprime crisis I mean initially you know the FED said that was contained"
Pending
Banks are incurring significant losses on both commercial real estate and current residential mortgages, a situation more severe than previously understood.
"today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current all the mortgages that are paid that they're that they're being paid on those are the ones they're losing on so so it's so much worse yet nobody understands it"
Pending
Home prices might eventually decline, but low locked-in mortgage rates are preventing homeowners from selling, thus restricting supply and propping up prices.
"home prices could eventually fall certainly in in in in individual markets but what's keeping home prices from falling is the fact that so many Americans have locked in these low rates and they don't want to move they don't want to sell"
Pending
The speaker argues that homeownership as the sole American dream, particularly the idea of getting rich through home appreciation, is a perversion promoted by realtors.
"home ownership you know buying a home um that's not the American dream I mean that's the the realtor's dream right it was a perversion of the American dream that the American dream was just owning a home and then just getting rich because your home appreciates"
Pending
The true American dream is the opportunity to work hard, succeed, and earn enough to afford a home in a free country, where individual drive determines success, not the mere act of owning a home.
"the American dream uh meant that you can come to America and and work hard and succeed and and and you can earn enough money to buy a home right not that the dream wasn't owning the home the dream was to be able to afford to buy one because you came to a free country where you can rise as far as your talents and your ambition and your drive will take you"
Pending
Social Security is described as a massive problem originating from a Ponzi scheme established in the 1930s.
"Social Security that's another you know problem massive problem it dates all the way back to the creation of the Ponzi scheme uh in the 1930s with Roosevelt"
Pending
The Social Security system is characterized as a lie, falsely presented as insurance with a trust fund, when in reality, it operates as a tax-funded system where the government spends all collected money.
"the whole thing was a lie because they pretended it was insurance they said you were paying premiums uh and there was some kind of trust fund but it was all a lie nobody paid a premium they paid a tax there is no real trust fund the government just spends all the money"
Pending
If a private entity operated a retirement program like Social Security, it would be deemed illegal and result in criminal charges due to its Ponzi scheme nature.
"if the private sector ran a retirement program the way the government runs Social Security they'd all be in jail uh because they're running a Ponzi scheme"
Pending
The Social Security system is nearing complete collapse, coinciding with the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation.
"we're on the verge of complete implosion uh the baby boom and I am uh at the tail end of the baby boom I was born in 1963 the last Boomer was born in 1964 right and so I'm 61 and and so I'm almost that retirement age"
Pending
The Social Security trust funds are depleted; any surplus funds were borrowed by the government and replaced with IOUs, meaning there is no actual money remaining in the funds.
"there's no money in fact these phony Social Security trust funds the way the trust funds worked is the government would collect Social Security taxes then pay out the benefits and if there was any money left over the government borrowed it out and and put an IOU in the trust fund a Government Bond so any extra money that was left over the government just spent it on other programs so there's no money there the government took it all"
Pending
The Social Security system is already unsustainable, as expenditures now exceed tax revenues.
"now the Social Security funds are actually collecting Less in taxes than they're spending already so the system already doesn't work"
Pending
Key buyers of US debt (Fed, foreign central banks, government trust funds) are reducing their holdings or selling, indicating a potential collapse of the bond bubble.
"the biggest buyers of our debt used to be the Fed foreign central banks and and government trust funds government trust funds are selling the FED is selling and foreign central banks aren't buying the next thing is they're going to really start selling so this whole Bond bubble collapses"
Pending
The Federal Reserve will likely resort to printing more money to buy bonds, preventing interest rates from skyrocketing but causing hyperinflation.
"either interest rate Skyrocket or inflation skyrockets because the Federal Reserve prevents rates from skyrocketing by printing even more money to buy up the bonds that everybody else is selling and they reverse course and they go from quantitative Tiding back to quantitative easing on steroids and then inflation goes through the roof"
Pending
Social Security was a flawed concept, accepted by the public under false pretenses regarding its financing.
"Social Security was a horrible idea it was sold to the public as a lie uh they never would have approved it had the government been honest about its financing"
Pending
The government's involvement in Social Security is deemed unconstitutional, and individuals would manage their retirement savings more effectively if not for the government's mismanagement of funds.
"it's unconstitutional the government should not be involved in this people should save for their own retirement uh they would do a much better job than the government because the government didn't save a nickel they took everybody's money and then spent at all"
Pending
Politicians will use inflation as a politically viable method to reduce the real value of Social Security benefits, avoiding direct cuts and blame by attributing rising prices to external factors.
"the only politically viable way to deliver the pain because the politicians don't want to be the actual messenger of that pain you know they shoot the messengers uh and in in the case of politicians they don't reelect them uh and so when they create inflation as I said earlier they can blame it on other things"
Pending
The purchasing power of Social Security payments will be significantly eroded by inflation, as the government cannot afford to provide the expected benefits.
"people are going to see the value of their Social Security payments destroyed because the only alternative is that they don't get the money in the first place but there's no way they're going to get the purchasing power they expect because the government can't afford it"
Pending
Despite current prices, gold is considered very cheap relative to its projected future value.
"Gold is about 2400 that may seem expensive but it's actually very cheap uh especially relative to where it's about to go"
Pending
Silver, currently around $28, was $50 in 2011 and 2008, making it significantly cheaper now than in previous years.
"Silver's about $28 uh it was $24 a couple of weeks ago but it was $50 you know in 2011 it was $50 in 2008 not many things that you can buy for half the cost of what it was in 2008 so silver is one of those things"
Pending
Prices of commodities like coffee and cocoa are skyrocketing, indicating a domino effect of significant price increases across the board.
"look what's happened to Coffee look what's happened to Cocoa I mean prices are just skyrocketing I mean this is going to be like a dominoes uh of of big price increases"
Pending
Investors should adopt a portfolio strategy similar to the 1970s, but with even greater emphasis, due to the more severe current US economic problems and the anticipated worse inflationary consequences in the coming decade.
"you need to have a 70s portfolio only even more so uh because the problems that the US faces today are far more severe than the problem we had in 1970 and the inflationary consequences that are going to unfold in the decade ahead are going to be much worse"
Pending
Gold prices experienced a substantial increase from $35 to $800 per ounce during the 1970s.
"during the 70s gold went from $35 an ounce to$ 800 wow right so you know that was a big big move"
Pending
Oil prices increased tenfold from $3 to $30 per barrel.
"oil prices went from $3 a barrel to $30 a barrel that's a tenfold increase"
Pending
De-dollarization is currently underway and is expected to gain momentum over time.
"de dollarization is happening right now I mean it's starting off slow but it's going to be building up momentum as uh as we go forward"
Pending
US sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion sent a message to the world that dollar and treasury holdings could be targeted, encouraging nations to divest from the dollar.
"Biden by putting sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a the wrong message to not only Russia but to the rest of the world you know that this could happen to you next that if you do something that pisses us off we're going after your your dollars we're going after your treasuries we're going to kick you out of the Swift system and so the message that we sent was get out of the dollar"
Pending
Many individuals have been misled by Bitcoin's marketing and are likely to suffer financial losses.
"a lot of people have gotten suckered into the Bitcoin sales pitch a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin unfortunately"
Pending
Bitcoin is not digital gold, as evidenced by its significant drop during a geopolitical crisis when the S&P 500 fell less and gold rose, indicating it is not a safe haven or hedge.
"Bitcoin is not digital gold I mean first of all look what happened last night you know we had the missiles you know were were dropping people were panicking and immediately the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon as we got the news of uh you know the Israeli retaliation against Iran so the S&P futures immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a half% gold immediately is up 1 and a half% made a record high of like uh 2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped 6% it dropped more than the stock market"
Pending
Bitcoin is neither a safe haven nor an inflation hedge, as it is riskier than assets people hedge against and lacks intrinsic value.
"it's not a safe haven it's not a hedge I mean it's riskier than what people might be hedging so it can't be digital gold if it's not a safe haven but but also it's not a store of value so it's not an inflation hedge because Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value that you could store"
Pending
Unlike Bitcoin, which relies solely on supply and demand, gold is a physical commodity with inherent value and future utility.
"there's just supply and demand to support it but gold is an actual metal it's a precious metal a physical commodity the most useful metal on the periodic table and when you're storing gold you're storing all the future use of that metal"
Pending
Despite regulatory classification, Bitcoin lacks practical utility beyond simple transfer, unlike other commodities.
"Bitcoin is not really a commodity even though the cftc you know says this commodity as opposed to a security but it doesn't have a real use like any of the other Commodities all you can do with Bitcoin is send it to somebody else that's the only use you have"
Pending
Bitcoin is characterized as 'Fool's Gold' and not a digital equivalent of actual gold.
"Bitcoin is not digital gold it's Fool's Gold"
Pending
Major Wall Street firms are facilitating customer investments in Bitcoin ETFs for commission, rather than investing their own capital.
"black Brock and all those big Wall Street firms aren't buying Bitcoin their customers are buying Bitcoin they're just booking the bets they've established these ETFs and they let their customers buy them if they want to Wall Street will let you do any dumb thing as long as they can make a commission"
Pending
The initial surge in Bitcoin ETFs is expected to subside, followed by significant selling as investors realize it's not a safe haven or store of value.
"I think that's over and I think the next big move is selling out of the ETFs because I think a lot of people rushed in with the expectations of a moonshot 100,000 200,000 million thought they're buying a safe haven a store value"
Pending
A drop below $50,000-$60,000 is predicted to trigger a sell-off as many recent investors, driven by speculation rather than belief, will exit.
"I think once Bitcoin you know breaks below 60,000 maybe below 50,000 I think a lot of the people that got in are going to try to get out now I don't think these are long-term hoders these are not die hard true believers they just jumped on a a fad"
Pending
While Bitcoin is unlikely to go to zero soon, it could approach that value. Trading might continue for some time, similar to bankrupt company stocks, even if the asset has little intrinsic worth.
"I don't think Bitcoin is going to go to zero anytime soon but it can get pretty damn close but I think there'll always be people not always but at least in the foreseeable future people will be willing to trade Bitcoin I mean if you could buy a Bitcoin for a dollar again somebody will do it so I don't know that it's going to go to zero but I mean I do think they'll be trading bankrupt companies trade right they trade for pennies but they don't go to zero even though they're inherently worthless"
Pending
Gold is on an upward trajectory, having recently broken out of a decade-long consolidation period after failing to surpass $2000 in 2011.
"I think we're just headed to higher it doesn't mean that we're going to go higher every day but I think we're on a upward trajectory now we've broken out of you know a decade long consolidation you know gold initially ran up to almost 2,000 in 2011 and it didn't really break out until just recently"
Pending
Gold and silver prices are predicted to increase substantially in the future.
"I think we're headed to many many times higher same with silver"
Pending
Gold should be viewed as a form of money for saving, rather than an investment, offering an alternative to fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies.
"I don't think gold is an investment I think it's money I think you you save gold instead of Fiat currencies or instead of uh crypto"
Pending
The speaker's investment approach focuses on global equities, particularly dividend-paying companies, managed through Europacific Asset Management.
"I look at Investments at least the ones that I manage as the stocks that I buy uh Global equities good dividend paying companies around the world so you should go to EUR Pacific Asset Management the website is zack.com"
Pending
Europacific offers five no-load mutual funds available through most discount brokerage firms.
"I've got five mutual funds that we manage in the europacific fund family you can buy them no load uh at just about every discount brokerage firm"
Pending
International equity portfolios are expected to perform well if the thesis of stagflation, rising commodity prices, and a declining dollar proves accurate.
"these are the types of portfolios that should do very well if my thesis is correct on stagflation Rising commodity prices and a falling dollar"
Pending
The current economic problems in the US are more severe than those in the 1970s, and the inflationary consequences expected in the next decade will be considerably worse.
"the problems that the US faces today are far more severe than the problem we had in 1970 and the inflationary consequences that are going to unfold in the decade ahead are going to be much worse"
Pending
Inflation is predicted to rise again towards 10% later in the year, driven by soaring commodity prices, contrary to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
"I think the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so uh these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year "when the CPI is moving back towards 10% not down towards 2%."
Pending
Increasing debt levels and rising credit card delinquency rates signal a potential breaking point for consumer spending, impacting businesses that rely on it.
"Americans are getting tapped out on their debt levels people are maxing out credit cards delinquency rates are starting to rise what does that mean then for the economy and spending in the future and businesses that are relying on this continuous Rising spending"
Pending
Economic data is potentially unreliable due to fudging and flaws in compilation, with a history of substantial revisions.
"I think that the data some of it is is is is likely fudged but I think a lot of it has to do with flaws in the way the data is compiled and the government is notorious for going backwards and making very substantial revisions"
Pending
Current economic data indicating strength may be revised downwards, revealing a weaker economy than publicly perceived.
"I think it's certainly possible that a lot of the data that people are pointing to now as proof of the strength of the economy is going to be revised and maybe it will show that the economy wasn't strong at all but I think there's a lot of other data that show that the economy is weak we just don't recognize it"
Pending
Record low savings rates, high household debt, and high credit card debt are indicators of an economy in distress.
"record low basically household debt at a record high High credit card debt at a record high uh these are signs of economy in distress"
Pending
The job market is characterized by a decline in full-time positions and an increase in lower-paying part-time jobs, indicating economic weakness.
"on balance we're creating only part-time jobs we're losing full-time jobs I think that's a sign of a weak economy where we're replacing part-time jobs or full-time jobs with part-time jobs the jobs that we're creating are lower pay than the ones that we're destroying"
Pending
A record high in moonlighting suggests people are forced to take multiple jobs to cover expenses, often resorting to debt.
"Moonlighting is at a record high people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to pay the bills and even then they can't pay the bills without going into debt"
Pending
Low unemployment figures may be misleading as a significant number of people have withdrawn from the labor market.
"the low unemployment numbers don't really tell the story uh to the true extent too that people have detached themselves from the labor market "and are no longer included in those statistics"
Pending
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is believed to understate actual inflation, leading to an overestimation of GDP growth.
"I think that the CPI broadly understates the severity of that problem by Design so I think we have stronger inflation than we acknowledge "which means we automatically have weaker GDP growth"
Pending
President Biden's unpopularity, particularly regarding his economic policies, suggests that the economy is not performing as well as presented by the media.
"the most unpopular sitting president in the history of these popularity polls and if the economy was so good why wouldn't Biden be getting the credit I mean the media certainly tries to do it I mean the media is heavily biased in favor of Biden and the Democrats and they're talking about how good the economy is and they're they're crediting biomics and you know the president's leadership yet he's is very unpopular"
Pending
Voter dissatisfaction with President Biden's handling of the economy indicates that the economic situation is perceived as poor by the public.
"the actual questions where Biden scores the lowest is on the economy so that that's where he's got his worst marks and so I don't think the voters would be "so negative on Biden's handling of the economy if the economy were good"
Pending
The current economic situation is described as stagflation, with a dramatic increase in the cost of living since President Biden took office.
"people are struggling it's really stagflation the cost of living has gone up dramatically since Biden has been in office"
Pending
The economic outlook is predicted to deteriorate further.
"things are bad and they're about to get a lot worse"
Pending
Consumers are reaching their debt limits, with increasing credit card max-outs and rising delinquency rates.
"Americans are getting tapped out on their debt levels people are maxing out credit cards delinquency rates are starting to rise"
Pending
The US economic model, reliant on foreign production and borrowing, is unsustainable.
"the only reason that we could do that is because the rest of the world is making the stuff that we're buying and lending us the money to to do it but that is an unsustainable economic model"
Pending
Interest rates are considered artificially low by the speaker, despite the Federal Reserve's claims of restrictiveness, as inflation is accelerating.
"I think the FED is ultimately going to keep rates artificially low and I think they're still too low I mean the FED claims that the rates are "restrictive they're not syy inflation is accelerating the rates are still too low"
Pending
Raising interest rates to an appropriate level would cause the debt-laden economy to collapse under the weight of debt servicing.
"if they raise them to an appropriate level assuming they even know where that level is "I think you know the the debt "ridden economy would implode with the weight of that debt service"
Pending
Historically low interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit from 2008 to 2022 are identified as a primary cause of current inflation.
"Americans were able to borrow to buy homes at three and 4% they were able to get you know ultra low auto "loans "credit was was cheap and plentiful and that's the problem that's why we have so much inflation"
Pending
Current interest rates are considered insufficient to combat high inflation; they need to be significantly higher than the current 'normal' rate of 5%.
"rates need to be more than just high they need to be very high but we're not even at high we're kind of at a normal rate a 5% rate for an economy that has a normal rate of inflation "but we don't we have very high inflation"
Pending
Commodity prices are soaring, indicating that CPI inflation will likely trend back towards 10% later in the year, rather than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
"the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so "these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year "when the CPI is moving back towards 10% not down towards 2%"
Pending
Official inflation figures significantly understate the true cost of living, with actual inflation potentially being double the reported rate.
"the official rate probably only captures about half the actual price increases so when you're at 9% like we were at we were probably closer to 18% that was the reality"
Pending
The reported inflation of 22% since 2020 is likely an underestimate, with the average person experiencing significantly higher grocery costs.
"if I about $100 "part of groceries back in 2020 it should cost me about $122 today "versus for the average person I think it's costing significantly more than that today"
Pending
Consumers are depleting savings and 401(k)s, and relying heavily on credit cards, indicating severe financial strain.
"Americans are already spending most if not all of their money they're digging into to savings they're digging it to the 401K they're digging it to the credit cards"
Pending
The US may already be in a recession, with official numbers expected to be revised later, possibly after the election.
"we're probably already in a recession it's just that the numbers don't reveal that yet they may have to be revised at some later date maybe after the election we'll get a lot of these revisions"
Pending
The economy is predicted to be weaker and inflation stronger than anticipated, leading to a stagflationary scenario of weak growth combined with high inflation.
"the economy is a lot weaker than people expect and inflation is a lot stronger instead of this Goldy loock scenario that people Envision it's it's the worst case scenario because you've got weak growth and inflation at the same time"
Pending
Inflation is primarily caused by government deficit spending and Federal Reserve money printing, not by economic growth or employment, contrary to Keynesian views.
"the people who thought it was impossible didn't actually understand economics a bunch of keynesians who think inflation is a byproduct of people working or economic growth it's not it's caused by government "deficit spending and fed money printing"
Pending
The US Treasury and Federal Reserve collaborated to inject massive inflation into the economy through money printing.
"massive inflation Unleashed by the government "it was the treasury in you know tandem with the Federal Reserve working together to flood the economy with inflation"
Pending
Prices are expected to continue rising significantly as they adjust to the increased money supply.
"prices are going higher they're going much higher we're still early in the process where prices are adjusting to a new much higher level given all the "new money being created and spent into the economy"
Pending
Inflation disproportionately benefits the wealthy who own assets and have debt, while harming the general public.
"the people who are benefiting are the very rich who had a lot of debt and owned a lot of assets real assets like "you know stocks or real estate "inflation serve them well but the general public "was was harmed substantially"
Pending
While investors have seen significant wealth growth (75% in S&P 500 over 5 years), average individuals have become poorer due to inflation (22-25% CPI over 5 years) outpacing Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.
"I did a video recently where "I looked at the Social Security cost of living increases over the last 5 years which came up right around "22% the reported inflation over that "same period CPI was around 20 "5% versus the SNP has grown by around "75% so people who like whater mentioned "the investors have become significantly wealthier over the last 5 years versus "the average person has become poorer"
Pending
Social Security's cost-of-living adjustments have not kept pace with the actual increase in the cost of living, which is estimated to be around 50%.
"the CPI probably equates to a 50% increase in the actual cost of living so those Social Security "increases haven't come close to covering the added "expenses that Social Security recipients are dealing with"
Pending
Increased Social Security payments contribute to the deficit, leading to money printing, more inflation, and a cycle of larger cost-of-living adjustments.
"those increased payments directly add to the deficit because the government you know doesn't raise taxes to make higher payments to Social Security "and so they end up having to print more money to pay for the colas "which creates even more inflation which creates bigger colas"
Pending
Historically, recessions have led to declines in asset prices like stocks and real estate.
"financially Savvy who are paying attention to this are hearing okay well "if there's a recession coming that generally means asset prices stock "prices real estate prices would move lower"
Pending
High inflation may prevent significant declines in overall stock and real estate markets, although some overpriced tech stocks could see price drops.
"if there's a lot of inflation "this time which is what I expect "the stock prices and real estate prices may actually not come down "that much I mean there may be some individual stocks that do like a lot of "overpriced tech stocks so those stocks "could come down but the overall stock "market may not come down that much real "estate market may not come down that much "much "because of inflation"
Pending
Gold's potential significant rise (500%) could lead to a crash in stock and real estate prices in terms of gold value, creating opportunities for those holding gold.
"if instead of sitting on a bunch of cash "you're sitting on a stock pile of "gold that might be the opportunity "you may be able to sell your gold and buy a "lot of cheap stocks and real estate in "terms of your gold because maybe stock "prices real estate prices go up "50% right but "uh gold goes up 500% right "that means that in terms of Gold stock "and real estate prices crashed"
Pending
High inflation may prevent the government from using deficit spending and 0% interest rates to stimulate the economy during a recession, as they have in the past.
"in Prior "recessions the government has been able "to artificially Goose the economy with bigger "de deficit spending and 0% "interest rates but High inflation May "prevent that from happening"
Pending
The Federal Reserve may be unable to provide the usual stimulus during a recession due to high inflation, unlike in previous recessions.
"in Prior "recessions the government has been able "to artificially Goose the economy with bigger "de deficit spending and 0% "interest rates but High inflation May "prevent that from happening "so the FED may not be able to provide the type of "stimulus that everybody has been "accustomed "to"
Pending
Government bailouts and stimulus programs may not be feasible in future recessions due to the accumulated debt from previous interventions.
"we may not be able to do that again "because the reason we're in so much "trouble now is because we borrowed so "much money back back then to pay for "those bailouts and stimulus programs so "this time we may not be able to do it "again which means we're going to go "through a recession where nobody gets "any help from the government and nobody "nobody who's failing gets a bailout"
Pending
A future recession could be more severe than previous ones due to the potential inability of the government to provide aid or bailouts.
"this time we may not be able to do it "again which means we're going to go "through a recession where nobody gets "any help from the government and nobody "nobody who's failing gets a bailout so "that could be a much more severe "economic downturn than we're used to "without that offsetting help from "the government"
Pending
The current economic situation, with existing high inflation, makes escaping a recession more painful than in past instances like 2008 or 2020, where inflation was not a primary concern.
"we never really had an "inflation issue going into a recession "like going into the 2008 financial "crisis inflation wasn't really a concern "same with before "the 2020 pandemic now what you're saying "is because we already have an inflation "issue if we go into a recession which "you're saying we're already in getting "us out of this mess is going to be a lot "more painful"
Pending
Quantitative easing is described as a euphemism for inflation, involving money printing to purchase government bonds.
"the economic "solution that the FED has always come up "with for for every problem was inflation "in fact if you think about quantitative "easing that's just a euphemism for "inflation right quantitative easing is "inflation it's printing money and buying "government bonds that that's inflation"
Pending
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: using its standard inflation-generating tools to combat a recession caused by high inflation is counterproductive.
"if the FED has always created inflation to get us "out of every recession if we finally "have a recession that's actually caused "by high inflation where High inflation "is the major problem that is "confronting the economy how does the FED "then use its standard Playbook of more "inflation to solve a problem that in and of "itself was caused by inflation"
Pending
Fighting inflation with more inflation is ineffective and likened to trying to cure a hangover with more alcohol.
"you can't fight inflation with more inflation "it's not like you know fight a hangover "by taking another drink right just "you know more of the dog to you that "isn't going to work more inflation isn't "going to solve a problem of too much "inflation"
Pending
The true cause of inflation is the expansion of the money supply, which is attributed to government actions.
"the real definition places the "blame for inflation where it belongs on "government because if you understand "that inflation is the expansion of the "money supply well who does that right "it's the government"
Pending
Foreign entities like Putin cannot cause US inflation because they cannot print US dollars; the source is domestic money supply expansion.
"greedy corporations don't print money they have to earn the "money same thing as Putin Putin can't "cause our inflation he can't print our "money I mean he can cause inflation in "Russia he can print rubles but can't BR "dollars so he can't be the source of US "inflation"
Pending
Companies use 'shrinkflation' (reducing package size or quantity) as a strategy to pass on inflation costs to consumers without overt price increases.
"companies have been playing this you know trick "for a long time to deal with "inflation and and so what companies try "to do rather than just raise prices is "they just shrink the "the packages or "they put less of a product in a package "you know they make the candy bars "smaller they put less cereal in a box "fewer rolls of toilet paper"
Pending
There's an ironic conflict between the Federal Reserve's efforts to fight inflation through rate hikes and quantitative tightening, and the government's continued deficit spending which fuels inflation.
"the Federal Reserve "Bank is trying to fight inflation "they're raising interest rates doing "quantitative tightening they're trying "to fight inflation but then the "government says inflation is a problem "we want to bring inflation down but we "still have this national deficit that's "over a trillion dollars where the "government keeps spending money so "they're creating inflation while the "Federal Bank is fighting inflation so "how I mean it's just it's very ironic in "that sense to me"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's actions, such as lowering interest rates to zero and engaging in multiple rounds of quantitative easing, suggest it is not genuinely fighting inflation but rather pretending to do so.
"the FED is not not really "fighting inflation I mean it's a "half-ass job at best it's pretending "that it's fighting inflation but you "know if it really was going to fight "inflation it never would have lowered "interest rates to zero in the first "place we never would have had "quantitative easing certainly not you "know four rounds of it"
Pending
A true fight against inflation by the Fed would involve more rate hikes, not indications of rate cuts while rates remain too low.
"if it really was fighting inflation "it wouldn't have stopped hiking rates "they're still too low they would have "had several more rate hikes they would "not be indicating that rate cuts are "around the corner when rates are still "too low"
Pending
Continued government spending is directly contributing to inflation by increasing demand for goods and services.
"the big "thing is government spending "which hasn't "stopped at all Governments send people money "and they go out and buy stuff with it "and that's bidding up prices so we have to reduce "government spending"
Pending
Government spending is not being reduced because interest rates are too low to create sufficient pressure for fiscal contraction.
"if rates "were much higher the government would be "cutting spending but they're not because "rates are still too low"
Pending
Raising interest rates to a level sufficient to combat inflation would trigger a severe financial crisis, impacting both banks and the US government.
"if the FED raises "interest rates to a level that might be "appropriate to actually fight the "inflation it caused that rate would be "so high that it would cause a financial "crisis that it would not only cause a "crisis for the banks but for the US "government itself"
Pending
If interest rates reach 14%, the US government's annual debt service costs could soar to $4-5 trillion, potentially exceeding tax revenue.
"the current "debt service cost on the $35 trillion "national debt right is "about 1.1 trillion a "year you know if the rates got up to "where you're talking you know "14% I don't know be four trillion 5 "trillion a year I mean the government "would probably have to spend more to "service the debt than it collects in "taxes"
Pending
Within 1-1.5 years, government interest payments on the national debt could reach $2 trillion annually, even if rates remain in the low fives.
"even if rates just "stay where they are in the low fives you "know a year a year and a half from now "the government will be spending two "trillion a year on interest on the "national debt"
Pending
The Federal Reserve will continue to generate inflation rather than fight it, while misleading the public about its intentions.
"the FED is "not going to fight inflation it's "going to continue to create inflation "but it can't be honest about that it "can't tell the public what it's going to "do it has to keep pretending it's going "to do the opposite of what it's actually "going to do"
Pending
Investors should divest from dollars, treasuries, and bonds, and invest in gold.
"people need to be getting out of dollars getting out of "treasuries or "Muni bonds or corporate "bonds or things like that and buying "gold"
Pending
Individuals should purchase gold and silver and move away from the dollar by investing in foreign assets to hedge against its potential collapse.
"people should be buying gold "and silver they should be getting out of "the dollar before the bottom drops out "of the dollar and buying foreign assets"
Pending
Through money printing and underreporting inflation, the government can artificially inflate GDP figures, masking an actual economic decline.
"we may not have a recession if "they print enough money and create "enough "inflation the GDP could keep going up "you know as long as they under report "the inflation if inflation is "10% and they claim it's you know "5% they can they can turn a 3% declining "GDP into a five into a 2% "expansion"
Pending
Reported GDP growth is misleading because it reflects inflation rather than genuine economic expansion, rendering it meaningless to the general population.
"higher GDP isn't going "to mean anything to the people who "actually live in the economy because "it's really measuring infl "and not economic "growth"
Pending
Government spending is the direct cause of high prices for goods and services, as inflation is the mechanism by which the government finances its expenditures.
"inflation is how the "government is paying for all of its "spending so the reason that goods and "services cost so much is because the "government spends so much"
Pending
The government finances its programs through either honest taxation or money printing, with the latter being used to avoid public backlash from tax increases.
"the government "has two ways of paying for the programs one "is they could do it honestly and raise "your "taxes "and then spend the money but "that pisses off the people who have to "pay the higher taxes so the other way is "they just print money"
Pending
Government spending reduces the purchasing power of money, effectively taxing citizens through inflation rather than through direct taxation.
"the government "takes your purchasing power "instead of your money so instead of "having less money my money just buys "less so at the end of the day I'm in the "same place I buy fewer things because of "government's need to finance its "increased spending"
Pending
Reducing government spending and decreasing the size of government are necessary to curb inflation.
"we have to cut government "spending we need a smaller government "so it doesn't have to create so much "inflation to pay the bills"
Pending
The speaker opposed both bank and COVID-related bailouts, noting public opposition stemmed from banks, particularly wealthy bankers, receiving the aid.
"I was opposed to both the "bailouts both the bank bailouts and the "co bailouts right I think one of the "reasons that the public was opposed to "the bailouts is because it was the banks "that were getting bailed out right the "bankers the rich "Bankers "and so they didn't like that"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is blamed for enabling Wall Street's excesses by providing easy credit, acting as the 'bartender' that supplied the 'drinks'.
"Wall Street was drunk "but don't forget who the bartender was right the Federal "Reserve was serving up the drinks so you "know you you can't excuse the fed you "can't just say Wall Street was drunk and "ignore who liquored him up right"
Pending
The government's creation of the financial predicament made bailouts necessary, but the speaker argues the government should not have made them available in the first place.
"the problem was the government never should "have made those bailouts available of "course if it wasn't for the government "there would have been no reason to bail "anybody out because it's the government "that created this predicament"
Pending
COVID-19 relief programs, including PPP loans for small businesses, were essentially non-repayable gifts funded by the government.
"the government "never should have made those bailouts available "of "course if it wasn't for the government "there would have been no reason to bail "anybody out because it's the government "that created this predicament "um but "when it came around the covid "bailouts they they that was for Main "Street too all kinds of small businesses "got those covid PPP checks and those "forgivable loans that weren't really "loans because you didn't have to pay "them back"
Pending
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is considered the largest financial fraud in American history due to widespread fraudulent activity.
"the PPP program I think was "named the largest financial fraud in "American history with the amount of "fraud that happened through that"
Pending
Enhanced unemployment benefits during COVID-19 created an incentive for people to leave their jobs, as they could earn more by staying home.
"the dumbest thing they "did was if you lost your job you got "like triple two to three times what you "got when you had a job so we created an "incentive for people to leave their jobs "because they earned more money staying "at home watching television and shopping "on on Amazon than schlepping over to "work every day"
Pending
The rejection of a proposal to cap unemployment benefits at previous earning levels led to a historically 'stupidest' fiscal and monetary policy combination.
"they "shot that down they said no no no "we can't do that that's too mean so I "mean it was the stupidest fiscal "monetary policy combination in history"
Pending
The entire US banking system is described as being fundamentally insolvent.
"our entire banking "system is basically insolvent"
Pending
If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to the necessary level, many more banks, similar to Silicon Valley and Signature Bank, are likely to fail.
"if the Fed raised "interest rates to the level "they need to be we would see that "because we'd have a lot more failures "than you know the ones that we had a "year ago with Silicon Valley Signature "Bank and you know a few others "because I think all the banks are in the "same predicament"
Pending
The current banking crisis is worse than in 2008 because it involves losses on both commercial real estate and all current mortgages, not just defaulted residential ones.
"this is much worse "than 2008 for the "banks no you know because in 2008 "commercial real estate wasn't a problem "at all it was only residential and the "banks were only losing money on the "mortgages that went into default "today they're losing a fortune on "Commercial Real Estate and they're "losing money on every mortgage that's "current all the mortgages that are paid "that they're that they're being paid on "those are the ones they're losing on"
Pending
Commercial real estate values have significantly decreased due to rising interest rates, similar to bond valuation.
"commercial real "estate has gotten killed "from a number of factors I mean one is rising "interest rates itself means commercial "real estate is less valuable because "it's valued like a bond"
Pending
The retail sector has suffered due to the significant shift of consumers to online shopping over the past decade.
"for the retail "sector you had a real nightmare because "so many people started shopping online "over the last 5 or 10 years that a lot "of these stores are not you know selling "enough because their customers are "shopping on "Amazon"
Pending
Soaring crime rates and resulting theft losses are leading many retailers to shut down operations.
"crime has "skyrocketed in "a lot of these retail "outlets so their their losses due to "theft have gone off the "charts "and so a lot of these "retailers they just want to shut down "their operations"
Pending
Office building values have plummeted due to the widespread adoption of remote work, a trend accelerated by COVID-19.
"Office Buildings got clobbered because so many "people are working from home a lot of "that started from covid"
Pending
Commercial real estate prices have crashed, leaving banks with substantial amounts of non-performing loans.
"prices have collapsed and the banks "are holding all the bad paper"
Pending
Home prices may eventually fall, but current low mortgage rates locked in by homeowners are limiting supply and preventing sales, thus stabilizing prices for now.
"home prices could "eventually fall certainly in in in in in "individual "markets but what's keeping home prices "from falling is the fact that so many "Americans have locked in these low rates "and they don't want to move they don't "want to "sell"
Pending
High construction costs and the need for builders to subsidize mortgages make new home purchases unaffordable and reduce builder profit margins.
"if you're building a new home it's "unaffordable because the construction "costs are very high and then once it's "constructed you got to borrow money now "the the home builders have been buying "down the "mortgages "but that in effect reduces "the price that they're getting for their "homes"
Pending
The notion that homeownership alone constitutes the American Dream, particularly the idea of getting rich solely through home appreciation, is considered a perversion of the original dream.
"buying "a home "that's not the American dream "I mean that's the "realtor's dream right it was a "perversion of the American dream that "the American dream was just owning a "home and then just getting rich because "your home appreciates"
Pending
The true American Dream was about the opportunity to work hard, succeed, and afford a home in a free country, not simply owning a home.
"the American "dream "meant that you can come to "America and and work hard and "succeed and and and you can earn enough "money to buy a home right not that the "dream wasn't owning the home the dream "was to be able to afford to buy one "because you came to a free country where "you can rise as far as your talents and "your ambition and your drive will take "you"
Pending
The idea of getting rich by simply buying a house with cheap, inflated money, promoted by realtors, has perverted the original American Dream.
"they perverted the American "dream which was this I'm going to buy a "house I don't have to work very hard I "just have to qualify for a morgage and "then my house is going to go way up and "I'm going to get rich because I own a "home right that and that again the "Realtors made this up but it was "possible because of the cheap money from "the FED that was inflating home prices"
Pending
Social Security is described as a Ponzi scheme initiated in the 1930s under President Roosevelt.
"massive "problem it dates all the way back to the "creation of the Ponzi scheme "in the 1930s with Roosevelt"
Pending
Social Security is characterized as a lie, masquerading as insurance when it's actually a tax-funded Ponzi scheme with no real trust fund, which would be illegal if run by the private sector.
"the whole thing was a lie "because they pretended it was insurance "they said you were paying premiums "and there was some kind of trust fund "but it was all a lie nobody paid a "premium they paid a tax there is no real "trust fund the government just spends "all the money Social Security is not "funded like a private sector "retirement program in fact if the "private sector ran a retirement program "the way the government runs Social "Security they'd all be in jail"
Pending
The Baby Boomer generation's entry into retirement is pushing Social Security towards complete implosion, with the speaker, born in 1963, nearing retirement age themselves.
"we're on the verge of complete implosion "the baby boom and I am "at the tail "end of the baby boom I was born in "1963 the last Boomer was born in "1964 right and so I'm "61 and and so I'm almost that retirement "age"
Pending
The Social Security trust funds are essentially empty, as the government has borrowed all surplus funds, leaving only IOUs (government bonds).
"there's no money in fact these phony "Social Security trust funds the way the "trust funds worked is the government "would collect Social Security taxes then "pay out the benefits and if there was "any money left over the government "borrowed it out and and put an IOU in "the trust fund a Government Bond so any "extra money that was left over the "government just spent it on other "programs so there's no money there the "government took it all"
Pending
Social Security is already spending more on benefits than it collects in taxes, indicating the system is no longer viable.
"the Social Security funds are "actually collecting Less in taxes than "they're spending already so the system "already doesn't work"
Pending
Traditional buyers of US debt (Fed, foreign banks, government trust funds) are reducing or eliminating their purchases, signaling a potential collapse of the bond bubble.
"the biggest the "biggest buyers of our debt used to be "the Fed foreign central banks and and "government trust funds government trust "funds are selling the FED is selling and "foreign central banks aren't buying the "next thing is they're going to really "start selling so this whole Bond bubble "collapses"
Pending
Social Security is deemed a terrible, unconstitutional idea based on lies about its financing, and individuals should be responsible for their own retirement savings.
"Social Security "was a horrible idea it "was sold to the public as a lie "they never would have approved it had the "government been honest about its "financing "but it's it's "unconstitutional the government should "not be involved in this people should "save for their own retirement"
Pending
Individuals could have built substantial retirement savings if their Social Security taxes and employer contributions had not been sent to the government.
"if people "had their social security "taxes and what the employer paid on "their behalf which would have been "theirs if the employer didn't send it to "the government instead of the worker "they could have built a a real "retirement neste"
Pending
The Social Security system is unraveling now, not just in the future, as the trust funds are already depleted and rely on selling government debt.
"the thing is unraveling as we speak and "people think well it's going to be a "problem for the future when the trust "funds run out of money they're already "broke and the only money they have is "government debt that they sell and that "really becomes a cyclical issue"
Pending
Politicians will avoid direct cuts to Social Security, leading to its value being eroded by inflation, which is seen as a politically palatable way to inflict 'pain'.
"nobody will cut "Social Security which means everybody's "Social Security is going to get "massively cut by inflation "I mean that's the only politically viable way to "deliver the pain because the politicians "don't want to be the actual messenger of "that pain"
Pending
Inflation, blamed on external factors, will destroy the value of Social Security payments, as direct cuts are politically unfeasible.
"when they create inflation as I "said earlier they can blame it on other "things greedy corporations you know OPEC "uh Putin whatever they want "but "people are going to see the value of "their Social Security payments destroyed "because the only alternative is that "they don't get the money in the first "place"
Pending
Due to political constraints against raising taxes or cutting spending, the government will resort to creating inflation to manage Social Security's financial shortfalls.
"there's no "way they're going to get the purchasing power they expect "because the government can't afford it "Now they can also have significant "increases in the payroll tax but no "politician wants to propose that either "or the people who pay that tax won't "vote for them so they can't raise taxes "they can't cut spending so all they can "do is create inflation"
Pending
Investors should divest from dollar-denominated assets and bonds, and invest in gold.
"people need to be getting out "of dollars getting out of "treasuries or "Muni bonds or corporate "bonds or things like that and buying "gold"
Pending
Gold is on an upward trajectory, having recently broken out of a decade-long consolidation period and surpassed the $2,000 mark.
"I think that "we're just headed higher it "doesn't mean that we're going to go higher every day but I think we're "on a upward trajectory Now we've broken "out of you know a decade long "consolidation you know gold initially "ran up to almost 2,000 in "2011 and it didn't really break out "until just recently"
Pending
Both gold and silver are predicted to increase significantly in value, potentially many times higher than their current levels.
"I think we're headed to many many times "higher "same with silver"
Pending
Gold and silver are viewed as forms of money for saving, rather than investments, unlike fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies.
"I don't think gold is "an investment I think it's money I think "you you save gold instead of Fiat "currencies or instead of "crypto you want to save gold and silver"
Pending
During the stagflation of the 1970s, successful investors held gold, silver, oil stocks, and agricultural stocks.
"the people "that made money in the "stagflation decade of the 70s they owned "gold and silver they own gold stocks "they own oil stocks agricultural stocks"
Pending
Many individuals are being misled into Bitcoin investments and are likely to lose substantial amounts of money.
"a lot of people have gotten "suckered into the Bitcoin sales "pitch "a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin "unfortunately"
Pending
Current Bitcoin buyers are essentially funding the profits of earlier investors who are now selling their holdings.
"the people who are "buying Bitcoin now they're just paying "for the gains of the people that bought "it years ago because they're you're "buying the Bitcoin that they're selling"
Pending
Bitcoin is not digital gold, as evidenced by its significant drop (6%) during a geopolitical crisis when the S&P 500 fell 1.5% and gold rose 1.5%, indicating it's a riskier asset.
"Bitcoin is "not digital gold "I mean first of all look what "happened last night you know we had the "missiles "were dropping people were panicking and immediately "the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon "as we got the news of "uh you know the the "the "the "Israeli retaliation "against Iran so the S&P futures "immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a "half% gold immediately is up 1 and a "half% made a record high of like "uh "2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped "6% it dropped more than the stock market"
Pending
Bitcoin cannot be considered digital gold because it lacks safe-haven characteristics and is riskier than assets typically used for hedging.
"it's not a safe haven it's not a "hedge I mean it's riskier than what "people might be hedging so it can't be "digital gold if it's not a safe haven"
Pending
Bitcoin lacks underlying value and cannot serve as a store of value or inflation hedge, as its price is solely determined by supply and demand.
"it's not a store of value "so it's not an inflation hedge because "Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value "that you could store I mean it has a "price right there's a market price for "Bitcoin but there's no underlying value "to support that price there's just "supply and demand to support it"
Pending
Gold, as a physical commodity, possesses intrinsic value and future utility, unlike Bitcoin, which lacks these characteristics.
"gold is "an actual metal it's a precious metal "a physical commodity the most useful "metal on the periodic table and when "you're storing gold you're storing all "the future use of that metal "people can use your gold in the future "to do all kinds of things"
Pending
The sole utility of Bitcoin is its transferability, which is easy because it represents the transfer of 'nothing' without intrinsic value.
"all you can do with Bitcoin "is send it to somebody else that's the "only use you have you you know and it is "very easy I acknowledge that it's very "easy "but the reason it's so easy to "send Bitcoin is because you're sending "nothing"
Pending
The concept of 'digital gold' is flawed, akin to 'digital food' being actual sustenance; digital representations lack the tangible properties and utility of their physical counterparts.
"digital gold is no "more gold than digital food is food "right I can't eat digital food"
Pending
Bitcoin is definitively not digital gold and is instead characterized as 'Fool's Gold.'
"Bitcoin is "not digital gold it's Fool's Gold"
Pending
Many Bitcoin investors are not long-term holders but rather opportunists who jumped on a fad, expecting quick profits.
"I don't think "these are long-term hoders these are not dieh hard "true believers they just jumped on a a "fad they thought they could make a quick "Buck"
Pending
While Bitcoin may not go to zero immediately, it is projected to significantly decline in value, approaching zero.
"I don't think that Bitcoin is going to go to zero anytime soon "but it can get pretty damn close"
Pending
For investors who bought Bitcoin at high prices (e.g., $60k-$70k), a significant drop to $1,000 would feel like a complete loss, akin to it going to zero.
"it's going to "feel like zero I mean if you lose 99% of "your money a Bitcoin even if it goes to "100 even if it goes to a th000 "you know if you bought it at 60 70,000 "and it goes to a th000 it's going to "feel like it went to zero"
Pending
De-dollarization is currently underway and expected to gain momentum as time progresses.
"there's a de dollarization is "happening right now I mean it's starting "off slow but it's going to be building "up momentum as "as we go forward"
Pending
US sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion sent a message to other nations to divest from the dollar and US treasuries, fearing similar actions against them.
"Biden by putting sanctions on "Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a "the wrong message to not only Russia but "to the rest of the world you know that "this could happen to you next that if "you do something that pisses us off "we're going after your your dollars "we're going after your treasuries we're "going to kick you out of the Swift "system and so the message that we sent "was get out of the dollar "before we have a chance to do that"
Pending
It is advised to buy gold and silver and divest from the US dollar before its value collapses.
"people need to be buying gold "and silver they should be getting out of "the dollar before the bottom drops out "of the dollar"
Pending
Gold is on an upward trajectory and has recently broken out of a decade-long consolidation phase, surpassing $2,000.
"I think that "we're just headed higher it "doesn't mean that we're going to go higher every day but I think we're "on a upward trajectory Now we've broken "out of you know a decade long "consolidation you know gold initially "ran up to almost 2,000 in "2011 and it didn't really break out "until just recently"
Pending
Gold and silver are both predicted to increase substantially in value, potentially manifold.
"I think we're headed to many many times "higher "same with silver"
Pending
Gold and silver are considered a form of money for saving, rather than investments, superior to fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies.
"I don't think gold is "an investment I think it's money I think "you you save gold instead of Fiat "currencies or instead of "crypto you want to save gold and silver"
Pending
During the 1970s stagflation, investors who profited held gold, silver, oil stocks, and agricultural stocks.
"the people "that made money in the "stagflation decade of the 70s they owned "gold and silver they own gold stocks "they own oil stocks agricultural stocks"
Pending
Many individuals are being misled into Bitcoin investments and are expected to suffer significant financial losses.
"a lot of people have gotten "suckered into the Bitcoin sales "pitch "a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin "unfortunately"
Pending
Current Bitcoin buyers are essentially subsidizing the profits of early investors who are exiting their positions.
"the people who are "buying Bitcoin now they're just paying "for the gains of the people that bought "it years ago because they're you're "buying the Bitcoin that they're selling"
Pending
Bitcoin is not digital gold, as its price dropped significantly (6%) during a geopolitical event when gold prices increased, indicating it's a riskier asset.
"Bitcoin is "not digital gold "I mean first of all look what "happened last night you know we had the "missiles "were dropping people were panicking and immediately "the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon "as we got the news of "uh you know the the "the "the "Israeli retaliation "against Iran so the S&P futures "immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a "half% gold immediately is up 1 and a "half% made a record high of like "uh "2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped "6% it dropped more than the stock market"
Pending
Bitcoin is not digital gold because it fails to act as a safe haven or hedge, demonstrating higher risk than typical hedging assets.
"it's not a safe haven it's not a "hedge I mean it's riskier than what "people might be hedging so it can't be "digital gold if it's not a safe haven"
Pending
Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value, making it unsuitable as a store of value or inflation hedge; its price is driven solely by supply and demand dynamics.
"it's not a store of value "so it's not an inflation hedge because "Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value "that you could store I mean it has a "price right there's a market price for "Bitcoin but there's no underlying value "to support that price there's just "supply and demand to support it"
Pending
Gold possesses intrinsic value as a physical commodity with diverse future applications, unlike Bitcoin.
"gold is "an actual metal it's a precious metal "a physical commodity the most useful "metal on the periodic table and when "you're storing gold you're storing all "the future use of that metal "people can use your gold in the future "to do all kinds of things"
Pending
The primary utility of Bitcoin is its transferability, which is facile because it represents the transmission of 'nothing' without inherent value.
"all you can do with Bitcoin "is send it to somebody else that's the "only use you have you you know and it is "very easy I acknowledge that it's very "easy "but the reason it's so easy to "send Bitcoin is because you're sending "nothing"
Pending
The term 'digital gold' is fallacious, comparable to 'digital food' being edible; digital representations lack the tangible properties and essential functions of their physical counterparts.
"digital gold is no "more gold than digital food is food "right I can't eat digital food"
Pending
Bitcoin is characterized as 'Fool's Gold' rather than digital gold.
"Bitcoin is "not digital gold it's Fool's Gold"
Pending
Many Bitcoin investors are short-term speculators rather than long-term believers, drawn by the prospect of quick profits.
"I don't think "these are long-term hoders these are not dieh hard "true believers they just jumped on a a "fad they thought they could make a quick "Buck"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to decline significantly in value, potentially nearing zero, though not immediately.
"I don't think that Bitcoin is going to go to zero anytime soon "but it can get pretty damn close"
Pending
For investors who purchased Bitcoin at high prices (e.g., $60k-$70k), a substantial drop to $1,000 would result in a perceived total loss.
"it's going to "feel like zero I mean if you lose 99% of "your money a Bitcoin even if it goes to "100 even if it goes to a th000 "you know if you bought it at 60 70,000 "and it goes to a th000 it's going to "feel like it went to zero"
Pending
De-dollarization is currently in its early stages but is expected to accelerate.
"there's a de dollarization is "happening right now I mean it's starting "off slow but it's going to be building "up momentum as "as we go forward"
Pending
US sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine invasion sent a clear message to other nations to divest from the dollar and US treasuries due to the risk of similar actions being taken against them.
"Biden by putting sanctions on "Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a "the wrong message to not only Russia but "to the rest of the world you know that "this could happen to you next that if "you do something that pisses us off "we're going after your your dollars "we're going after your treasuries we're "going to kick you out of the Swift "system and so the message that we sent "was get out of the dollar "before we have a chance to do that"
Pending
Individuals should acquire gold and silver and move away from the US dollar before its value plummets.
"people need to be buying gold "and silver they should be getting out of "the dollar before the bottom drops out "of the dollar"
Pending
Gold is on an upward trajectory and has recently broken out of a decade-long consolidation, surpassing $2,000.
"I think that "we're just headed higher it "doesn't mean that we're going to go higher every day but I think we're "on a upward trajectory Now we've broken "out of you know a decade long "consolidation you know gold initially "ran up to almost 2,000 in "2011 and it didn't really break out "until just recently"
Pending
Gold and silver are both predicted to increase substantially in value, potentially manifold.
"I think we're headed to many many times "higher "same with silver"
Pending
Gold and silver are considered a form of money for saving, rather than investments, superior to fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies.
"I don't think gold is "an investment I think it's money I think "you you save gold instead of Fiat "currencies or instead of "crypto you want to save gold and silver"
Pending
During the 1970s stagflation, investors who profited held gold, silver, oil stocks, and agricultural stocks.
"the people "that made money in the "stagflation decade of the 70s they owned "gold and silver they own gold stocks "they own oil stocks agricultural stocks"
Pending
Many individuals are being misled into Bitcoin investments and are expected to suffer significant financial losses.
"a lot of people have gotten "suckered into the Bitcoin sales "pitch "a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin "unfortunately"
Pending
Current Bitcoin buyers are essentially subsidizing the profits of early investors who are exiting their positions.
"the people who are "buying Bitcoin now they're just paying "for the gains of the people that bought "it years ago because they're you're "buying the Bitcoin that they're selling"
Pending
Bitcoin is not digital gold, as its price dropped significantly (6%) during a geopolitical event when gold prices increased, indicating it's a riskier asset.
"Bitcoin is "not digital gold "I mean first of all look what "happened last night you know we had the "missiles "were dropping people were panicking and immediately "the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon "as we got the news of "uh you know the the "the "the "Israeli retaliation "against Iran so the S&P futures "immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a "half% gold immediately is up 1 and a "half% made a record high of like "uh "2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped "6% it dropped more than the stock market"
Pending
Bitcoin is not digital gold because it fails to act as a safe haven or hedge, demonstrating higher risk than typical hedging assets.
"it's not a safe haven it's not a "hedge I mean it's riskier than what "people might be hedging so it can't be "digital gold if it's not a safe haven"
Pending
Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value, making it unsuitable as a store of value or inflation hedge; its price is driven solely by supply and demand dynamics.
"it's not a store of value "so it's not an inflation hedge because "Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value "that you could store I mean it has a "price right there's a market price for "Bitcoin but there's no underlying value "to support that price there's just "supply and demand to support it"
Pending
Gold possesses intrinsic value as a physical commodity with diverse future applications, unlike Bitcoin.
"gold is "an actual metal it's a precious metal "a physical commodity the most useful "metal on the periodic table and when "you're storing gold you're storing all "the future use of that metal "people can use your gold in the future "to do all kinds of things"
Pending
The primary utility of Bitcoin is its transferability, which is facile because it represents the transmission of 'nothing' without inherent value.
"all you can do with Bitcoin "is send it to somebody else that's the "only use you have you you know and it is "very easy I acknowledge that it's very "easy "but the reason it's so easy to "send Bitcoin is because you're sending "nothing"
Pending
The term 'digital gold' is fallacious, comparable to 'digital food' being edible; digital representations lack the tangible properties and essential functions of their physical counterparts.
"digital gold is no "more gold than digital food is food "right I can't eat digital food"
Pending
Bitcoin is characterized as 'Fool's Gold' rather than digital gold.
"Bitcoin is "not digital gold it's Fool's Gold"
Pending
Many Bitcoin investors are short-term speculators rather than long-term believers, drawn by the prospect of quick profits.
"I don't think "these are long-term hoders these are not dieh hard "true believers they just jumped on a a "fad they thought they could make a quick "Buck"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to decline significantly in value, potentially nearing zero, though not immediately.
"I don't think that Bitcoin is going to go to zero anytime soon "but it can get pretty damn close"
Pending
For investors who purchased Bitcoin at high prices (e.g., $60k-$70k), a substantial drop to $1,000 would result in a perceived total loss.
"it's going to "feel like zero I mean if you lose 99% of "your money a Bitcoin even if it goes to "100 even if it goes to a th000 "you know if you bought it at 60 70,000 "and it goes to a th000 it's going to "feel like it went to zero"
Pending
De-dollarization is currently in its early stages but is expected to accelerate.
"there's a de dollarization is "happening right now I mean it's starting "off slow but it's going to be building "up momentum as "as we go forward"
Pending
US sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine invasion sent a clear message to other nations to divest from the dollar and US treasuries due to the risk of similar actions being taken against them.
"Biden by putting sanctions on "Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a "the wrong message to not only Russia but "to the rest of the world you know that "this could happen to you next that if "you do something that pisses us off "we're going after your your dollars "we're going after your treasuries we're "going to kick you out of the Swift "system and so the message that we sent "was get out of the dollar "before we have a chance to do that"
Pending
Inflation is predicted to rise towards 10% later in the year, based on soaring commodity prices.
"I think that the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so uh these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year uh when the CPI is moving back towards 10% not down towards 2%"
Pending
President Biden's low approval ratings, particularly on the economy, suggest that the current economic situation is poor, despite official statistics.
"The most unpopular sitting president in the history of these popularity polls and if the economy was so good why wouldn't Biden be getting the credit I mean the media certainly tries to do it I mean the media is heavily biased in favor of Biden and the Democrats and they're talking about how good the economy is and they're they're crediting biomics and you know the president's leadership yet he's is very unpopular and if you look at the actual questions where Biden scores the lowest is on the economy so that that's where he's got his worst marks and so I don't think the voters would be uh so negative on Biden's handling of the economy if the economy were good so I think that that's a good reflection of how bad things are because even Democrats a lot of Democrats give him low marks on the economy"
Pending
The speaker predicts the economic situation will worsen significantly.
"things are bad and they're about to get a lot worse"
Pending
The speaker believes the US is already in a recession, and this will be revealed through revised economic data, potentially after the election.
"I think that again we're probably already in a recession it's just that the numbers don't reveal that yet they may have to be revised at some later date maybe after the election we'll get a lot of these revisions"
Pending
The speaker predicts a worst-case economic scenario of stagflation (weak growth and high inflation), rather than a 'Goldilocks' scenario.
"Instead of this Goldy loock scenario that people Envision it's it's the worst case scenario because you've got weak growth and inflation at the same time"
Pending
Prices are expected to continue rising significantly due to an increase in the money supply, outpacing wage growth and eroding savings.
"prices are going higher they're going much higher we're still early in the process where prices are adjusting to a new much higher level given all the the new money but you know people's wages hav't kept pace and of course people's savings uh you know don't you know aren't tied to uh the inflation"
Pending
Investors are advised to sell dollars, treasuries, and bonds, and instead buy gold to protect against inflation.
"people need to be getting out of dollars getting out of treasuries or uh Muni bonds or corporate bonds or things like that and buying gold"
Pending
Investors should consider buying foreign stocks and real estate as a hedge against a potential decline in US financial assets.
"buying foreign assets foreign you know stocks for Real Estate"
Pending
The government could mask a declining GDP by underreporting inflation, making it appear as economic expansion.
"we may not have a recession if they print enough money and create enough inflation the GDP could keep going up you know as long as they under report the inflation if inflation is 10% and they claim it's you know 5% they can they can turn a 3% declining GDP into a five into a 2% uh expansion"
Pending
Government programs like PPP are seen as exacerbating economic problems and were associated with significant fraud.
"all these programs made the economic problems worse not better and the PPP program I think was named the largest financial fraud in American history with the amount of fraud that happened through that"
Pending
The speaker states that the entire US banking system is essentially insolvent.
"our entire banking system is basically insolvent"
Pending
The speaker believes all banks are in a similar precarious financial situation.
"all the banks are in the same predicament"
Pending
Banks are experiencing significant losses on both commercial real estate loans and current residential mortgages due to rising interest rates.
"today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current all the mortgages that are paid that they're that they're being paid on those are the ones they're losing on"
Pending
The commercial real estate market has been severely impacted.
"commercial real estate has gotten killed"
Pending
The retail sector is struggling due to increased online shopping.
"retail sector you had a real nightmare because so many people started shopping online over the last 5 or 10 years that a lot of these stores are not you know selling enough because their customers are shopping on Amazon"
Pending
Office building values have significantly declined due to the rise of remote work.
"Office Buildings got clobbered because so many people are working from home"
Pending
Social Security is described as a massive problem and a Ponzi scheme established in the 1930s.
"Social Security that's another you know problem massive problem it dates all the way back to the creation of the Ponzi scheme in the 1930s with Roosevelt"
Pending
Social Security is not funded like a private retirement program and is characterized as an illegal Ponzi scheme due to government mismanagement of funds.
"the government took all the money Social Security is not funded like a private sector retirement program in fact if the private sector ran a retirement program the way the government runs Social Security they'd all be in jail because they're running a Ponzi scheme"
Pending
The Social Security system is already not working, as expenditures exceed tax revenues.
"the Social Security funds are actually collecting Less in taxes than they're spending already so the system already doesn't work"
Pending
Social Security benefits are expected to be severely eroded by inflation, as politicians are unwilling to cut benefits directly.
"nobody will cut Social Security which means everybody's Social Security is going to get massively cut by inflation I mean that's the only politically viable way to deliver the pain"
Pending
Investors should divest from dollars, treasuries, and bonds and invest in gold to hedge against inflation.
"people need to be getting out of dollars getting out of treasuries or uh Muni bonds or corporate bonds or things like that and buying gold"
Pending
Gold prices have reached a new record high, trading just under $2400.
"Gold is just under 2400 uh you know near I hit a new record high overnight"
Pending
It is recommended to buy gold and silver and exit the dollar before its value significantly declines.
"people should be buying gold and silver they should be getting out of the dollar before the bottom drops out of the dollar"
Pending
Gold and silver prices are predicted to increase substantially in the future.
"I think we're headed to many many times higher same with silver"
Pending
Many individuals are predicted to lose money on their Bitcoin investments.
"people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin unfortunately"
Pending
Bitcoin is not considered a safe haven or hedge because it dropped significantly during a geopolitical crisis when gold prices rose.
"Bitcoin is not digital gold I mean first of all look what happened last night you know we had the missiles you know were were dropping people were panicking and immediately the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon as we got the news of you know the the the the Israeli retaliation against Iran so the S&P futures immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a half% gold immediately is up 1 and a half% made a record high of like uh 2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped 6% it dropped more than the stock market so how it's not a safe haven it's not a hedge"
Pending
Bitcoin lacks underlying value, unlike gold, which is a physical commodity with inherent worth.
"Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value that you could store I mean it has a price right there's a market price for Bitcoin but there's no underlying value to support that price there's just supply and demand to support it but gold is an actual metal it's a precious metal a physical commodity"
Pending
Bitcoin is deemed 'Fool's Gold' and not a digital equivalent of actual gold.
"Bitcoin is not digital gold it's Fool's Gold"
Pending
The speaker predicts a sell-off of Bitcoin ETFs as many investors who bought in with high expectations will exit if the price drops below $60,000 or $50,000.
"I think that the next big move is selling out of the ETFs because I think a lot of people rushed in with the expectations of a moonshot 100,000 200,000 million thought they're buying a safe haven a store value I think once Bitcoin you know breaks below 60,000 maybe below 50,000 I think a lot of the people that got in are going to try to get out"
Pending
Even if Bitcoin doesn't go to absolute zero, a 99% loss in value will feel like zero to investors who bought at higher prices.
"it's going to feel like zero I mean if you lose 99% of your money a Bitcoin even if it goes to 100 even if it goes to a thousand"
Pending
The process of de-dollarization is underway and is expected to gain momentum.
"there's a de dollarization is happening right now I mean it's starting off slow but it's going to be building up momentum as as we go forward"
Pending
US sanctions on Russia have sent a global message to divest from the dollar and US financial assets.
"Biden by putting sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a the wrong message to not only Russia but to the rest of the world you know that this could happen to you next that if you do something that pisses us off we're going after your your dollars we're going after your treasuries we're going to kick you out of the Swift system and so the message that we sent was get out of the dollar"
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Banks are expected to suffer significant losses on commercial loans due to the severe decline in commercial real estate.
"the banks are going to lose a fortune on those commercial loans because commercial commercial real estate has gotten killed"
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Office building values have been significantly impacted due to the widespread adoption of remote work.
"Office Buildings got clobbered because so many people are working from home"
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The retail sector is facing severe challenges due to the rise of e-commerce.
"retail sector you had a real nightmare because so many people started shopping online over the last 5 or 10 years that a lot of these stores are not you know selling enough"
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The speaker believes that all banks are facing similar financial challenges.
"all the banks are in the same predicament"
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Banks are experiencing substantial losses on both commercial real estate and current residential mortgages, primarily due to rising interest rates.
"today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current all the mortgages that are paid that they're that they're being paid on those are the ones they're losing on"
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The current banking crisis is considered worse than 2008 because it involves losses on both commercial real estate and all current mortgages, not just defaulted residential ones.
"This is much worse than 2008 for the banks no you know because in 2008 commercial real estate wasn't a problem at all it was only residential and the banks were only losing money on the mortgages that went into default today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current"
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Inflation effectively reduces purchasing power, making money buy less, rather than reducing the amount of money itself.
"the government takes your purchasing power instead of your money so instead of having less money my money just buys less"
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Discretionary spending will decline as funds are redirected to necessities like food, coinciding with an insolvent banking system.
"people are going to have to give up on a lot of their discretionary spending because that money is going to go for food our entire banking system is basically insolvent"
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The speaker asserts that the US has a significant inflation problem that is understated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by design.
"we still have an inflation problem I think that the CPI broadly understates the severity of that problem by Design so I think we have stronger inflation than we acknowledge"
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The speaker uses President Biden's low popularity and lack of economic credit as evidence of a poor economy.
"The most unpopular sitting president in the history of these popularity polls and if the economy was so good why wouldn't Biden be getting the credit"
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The current economic condition is described as stagflation, with a dramatic increase in the cost of living during Biden's term.
"it's really stagflation the cost of living has gone up dramatically since Biden has been in office"
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The speaker predicts a further deterioration of the economic situation.
"things are bad and they're about to get a lot worse"
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Americans are reaching their debt limits, maxing out credit cards, and delinquency rates are increasing, signaling economic distress.
"Americans are getting tapped out on their debt levels people are maxing out credit cards delinquency rates are starting to rise"
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The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain artificially low interest rates, which are considered too low given accelerating inflation.
"I think the FED is ultimately going to keep rates artificially low and I think they're still too low I mean the FED claims that the rates are uh restrictive they're not syy inflation is accelerating the rates are still too low"
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Current interest rates are considered insufficient to combat high inflation; they need to be significantly higher than normal levels.
"rates need to be more than just high they need to be very high but we're not even at high we're kind of at a normal rate a 5% rate for an economy that has a normal rate of inflation but we don't we have very high inflation"
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Soaring commodity prices indicate that inflation is likely to rise back towards 10% later in the year, contrary to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
"the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so uh these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year uh when the CPI is moving back towards 10% not down towards 2%"
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The official inflation rate is underestimated; the actual price increases are approximately double the reported figures.
"the official rate probably only captures about half the actual price increases so when you're at 9% like we were at we were probably closer to 18% that was the reality"
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Consumers will be forced to cut discretionary spending to cover rising costs of essential goods and services like food, electricity, insurance, and energy.
"people are going to have to give up on a lot of their discretionary spending because that money is going to go for food it's going to go for electricity Insurance um energy you know maintenance I mean the cost of everything is going to go up"
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The speaker believes the US is already experiencing a recession, which will become evident through revised economic data, possibly after the election.
"a lot of people don't even think we're going to have a recession they think we've avoided even a soft Landing but I I think that again we're probably already in a recession it's just that the numbers don't reveal that yet they may have to be revised at some later date maybe after the election"
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The speaker predicts a worst-case economic scenario characterized by stagflation, combining weak growth with high inflation.
"it's the worst case scenario because you've got weak growth and inflation at the same time"
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Prices are expected to continue rising significantly as they adjust to the increased money supply.
"prices are going higher they're going much higher we're still early in the process where prices are adjusting to a new much higher level given all the the new money"
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The public's negative perception of Biden's handling of the economy reflects the reality of a poor economic situation, as opposed to official statistics.
"the general public uh you know was was harmed substantially again that's why Biden is so unpopular because the people who are scoring him so low are living in the reality of of this lousy economy they don't exist in in the fake world of Statistics"
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The speaker asserts that the US banking system is fundamentally insolvent.
"our entire banking system is basically insolvent"
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The speaker believes that all banks are facing similar financial difficulties.
"I think all the banks are in the same predicament"
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Banks are incurring significant losses on commercial real estate and all current mortgages, not just defaulted ones.
"today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current all the mortgages that are paid that they're that they're being paid on those are the ones they're losing on"
Pending
The current banking crisis is more severe than 2008, as it affects commercial real estate and all current mortgages, whereas 2008 primarily involved defaulted residential mortgages.
"This is much worse than 2008 for the banks no you know because in 2008 commercial real estate wasn't a problem at all it was only residential and the banks were only losing money on the mortgages that went into default today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current"
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The commercial real estate sector has suffered heavily.
"commercial real estate has gotten killed"
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The value of office buildings has plummeted due to the widespread adoption of remote work.
"Office Buildings got clobbered because so many people are working from home"
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The retail sector is facing significant challenges due to increased online shopping.
"retail sector you had a real nightmare because so many people started shopping online over the last 5 or 10 years that a lot of these stores are not you know selling enough"
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Social Security is described as a major problem and a Ponzi scheme initiated in the 1930s.
"Social Security that's another you know problem massive problem it dates all the way back to the creation of the Ponzi scheme in the 1930s with Roosevelt"
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Social Security is characterized as an illegal Ponzi scheme, unlike private retirement programs, due to the government's management of its funds.
"the government took all the money Social Security is not funded like a private sector retirement program in fact if the private sector ran a retirement program the way the government runs Social Security they'd all be in jail because they're running a Ponzi scheme"
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The Social Security system is currently unsustainable, with spending exceeding income.
"the Social Security funds are actually collecting Less in taxes than they're spending already so the system already doesn't work"
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Inflation is expected to significantly reduce the real value of Social Security benefits, as politicians are unwilling to implement direct cuts.
"nobody will cut Social Security which means everybody's Social Security is going to get massively cut by inflation I mean that's the only politically viable way to deliver the pain"
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Investors are advised to sell dollar-denominated assets like treasuries and bonds and purchase gold to protect against inflation.
"people need to be getting out of dollars getting out of treasuries or uh Muni bonds or corporate bonds or things like that and buying gold"
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Gold has reached a new record high, trading just below $2400.
"Gold is just under 2400 uh you know near I hit a new record high overnight"
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It is recommended to buy gold and silver and divest from the US dollar as its value is expected to decline.
"people should be buying gold and silver they should be getting out of the dollar before the bottom drops out of the dollar"
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The speaker predicts a significant increase in the future prices of both gold and silver.
"I think we're headed to many many times higher same with silver"
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The speaker predicts widespread financial losses for individuals investing in Bitcoin.
"people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin unfortunately"
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Bitcoin is not considered a safe haven asset because it declined during a geopolitical event, unlike gold which increased in value.
"Bitcoin is not digital gold I mean first of all look what happened last night you know we had the missiles you know were were dropping people were panicking and immediately the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon as we got the news of you know the the the the Israeli retaliation against Iran so the S&P futures immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a half% gold immediately is up 1 and a half% made a record high of like uh 2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped 6% it dropped more than the stock market so how it's not a safe haven it's not a hedge"
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Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and is not a store of value like gold, which is a physical commodity.
"Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value that you could store I mean it has a price right there's a market price for Bitcoin but there's no underlying value to support that price there's just supply and demand to support it but gold is an actual metal it's a precious metal a physical commodity"
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The speaker dismisses Bitcoin as 'Fool's Gold' and not a digital equivalent of gold.
"Bitcoin is not digital gold it's Fool's Gold"
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A sell-off of Bitcoin ETFs is anticipated as investors who entered with high expectations may exit if prices fall below $60,000 or $50,000.
"I think that the next big move is selling out of the ETFs because I think a lot of people rushed in with the expectations of a moonshot 100,000 200,000 million thought they're buying a safe haven a store value I think once Bitcoin you know breaks below 60,000 maybe below 50,000 I think a lot of the people that got in are going to try to get out"
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A 99% loss in Bitcoin value will feel like zero to investors, regardless of its absolute price.
"it's going to feel like zero I mean if you lose 99% of your money a Bitcoin even if it goes to 100 even if it goes to a thousand"
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De-dollarization is currently in its early stages but is expected to accelerate.
"there's a de dollarization is happening right now I mean it's starting off slow but it's going to be building up momentum as as we go forward"
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US sanctions on Russia have prompted other nations to reduce their reliance on the US dollar and Treasuries.
"Biden by putting sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a the wrong message to not only Russia but to the rest of the world you know that this could happen to you next that if you do something that pisses us off we're going after your your dollars we're going after your treasuries we're going to kick you out of the Swift system and so the message that we sent was get out of the dollar"
Pending
Banks are projected to incur substantial losses from commercial loans due to the severe downturn in the commercial real estate market.
"the banks are going to lose a fortune on those commercial loans because commercial commercial real estate has gotten killed"
Pending
Office building values have declined sharply as a result of increased remote work.
"Office Buildings got clobbered because so many people are working from home"
Pending
The retail sector is experiencing severe difficulties due to the growth of e-commerce.
"retail sector you had a real nightmare because so many people started shopping online over the last 5 or 10 years that a lot of these stores are not you know selling enough"
Pending