ilmscore | Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story

Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story

Published: 2023-10-31
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 10
Correct: 4
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 5
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Peter Zeihan predicted the end of China as a political entity within a decade or two.
"with his wild prediction that we are looking at the end of China s a political entity within a decade or two"
China
Pending
Peter Zeihan predicted the end of China as an economic entity within a decade.
"and as an entity and an economic entity within a decade."
China
Pending
The Economist's graph indicated that China's working-age population will likely fall rapidly.
"China's a working age population has indeed already peaked and will likely fall rapidly."
China's working-age population
Correct
The Lancet estimated that China's population will halve by 2100.
"The Lancet... which estimates that China's population will only have by 2100"
China's population
Pending
The UN predicted that China's population will shrink by 8% by 2050.
"the UN is even more optimistic as it lives. China's population will only shrink by 8% up to 2050."
China's population
Correct
Martin Wolf argued that the fall in China's working-age population for the next ten years can be fully compensated.
"Martin Wolf has argued that the fall in China's working age population for the next ten years... can actually be fully compensated"
China's labor force
Pending
Peter Zeihan predicted that the US is likely to stop policing global oceans after securing energy independence.
"he predicts that having secured energy independence, the US is likely to stop policing the global oceans."
US foreign policy
Incorrect
Peter Zeihan predicted that international trade will once again be vulnerable to piracy after the US stops policing global oceans.
"Which means that international trade will once again be vulnerable to piracy."
International trade
Pending
The speaker predicted that the CCP will likely prevent China's financial system from collapsing and will limit household losses.
"the CCP will likely keep the financial system from collapsing, limiting the losses of households"
China's financial system
Correct
The speaker agreed with Peter Zeihan that China's increased authoritarianism will prevent it from adequately responding to future crises.
"Mr. Zeihan is right that China's increase authoritarianism will prevent it from responding adequately to all of these crises"
China's authoritarianism and crisis response
Correct