These 6 Threats Could Crush Bitcoin Next Cycle
Published: 2025-12-24
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-12-24
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 4
Prediction
Topic
Status
JP Morgan predicts a 35% chance of a US and global recession in 2026.
"JP Morgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026."
Incorrect
The World Bank warns of the slowest global growth this decade since the 1960s.
"The World Bank is even glooier. They're warning that global growth this decade is on track to be the slowest since the 1960s."
Pending
Morgan Stanley forecasts core PCE to remain around 2.6% throughout 2026.
"Morgan Stanley forecasts core PCE hovering around 2.6% throughout 2026."
Pending
In late 2025, Bitcoin's correlation with the NASDAQ showed negative performance skew, capturing downside but not fully participating in upside.
"In late 2025, Bitcoin maintained a 0.8 correlation with the NASDAQ during draw downs, but failed to match it during rallies."
Correct
If Bitcoin falls to $60,000 in a recession, 30-40% of the network could become unprofitable to mine.
"If BTC drops to $60,000 in a recessionary environment, an estimated 30 to 40% of the network becomes unprofitable to operate."
Incorrect
Hut 8 has secured a $7 billion deal to host AI workloads over 15 years.
"Hut 8 recently signed a 15-year deal worth $7 billion to host AI workloads at its facilities."
Pending
MicroStrategy's 2030 convertible notes may be subject to cash redemption starting March 5, 2027.
"Starting on the 5th of March 2027, Strategy can be required to redeem the 2030 notes for cash if certain conditions aren't met."
Pending
MicroStrategy has billions in convertible notes outstanding, with maturities in 2030 and 2028.
"Strategy has billions in convertible notes outstanding, including 0% notes due in 2030 and 0.625% notes due in 2028."
Pending
MSCI is expected to decide in January 2026 whether to exclude digital asset treasuries from its major indices.
"In January 2026, Morgan Stanley Capital International or MSCI is expected to decide whether to exclude digital asset treasuries from its major indices."
Correct
The EU's MiCA regulation will be fully in force by July 2026.
"Micah, the markets in crypto assets regulation comes into full force by July 2026."
Pending
Basel III standards will assign a 1250% risk weight to unhedged crypto assets.
"The Basel 3 banking standards include a provision called SEO60, which assigns a 1250% risk weight to what they call quote unbed crypto assets."
Correct
If Bitcoin is labeled as having a significant adverse environmental impact, EU Article 8 and Article 9 funds will be unable to invest in it.
"If Bitcoin gets labeled as having a significant adverse impact on the environment, [...] these funds can't touch it."
Pending
ASML is the sole global manufacturer of EUV lithography machines.
"ASML is the only company on Earth that makes extreme ultraviolet or EUV lithography machines."
Correct
TSMC produces over 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.
"TSMC [...] uses them to produce over 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors."
Correct
Samsung's second-generation 3nm process is reportedly achieving a 20% yield.
"Samsung's second generation 3 nanometer process is reportedly running at around 20% yield."
Incorrect
Chinese researchers have reportedly reverse-engineered ASML's EUV lithography technology, potentially advancing China's semiconductor independence.
"China is also reportedly trying to cut out the Dutch entirely. In December, Reuters reported a breakthrough in EUV development by researchers in China who allegedly reverse engineered ASML's lithography technology."
Incorrect
US and Dutch sanctions are likely to increase the fragility of the short-term semiconductor supply chain.
"the news is likely to accelerate US and Dutch sanctions on China, making the short-term supply chain more fragile, not less."
Correct
A naval blockade, sanctions, or earthquake in Taiwan could halt the supply of new mining hardware for an extended period.
"A sustained naval blockade, for example, would probably do the trick. A semiconductor specific sanctions package or even a major earthquake in Taiwan could freeze the flow of new mining hardware for months or even years."
Pending
NIST is expected to finalize its post-quantum cryptography standards in 2026.
"In 2026, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology is expected to finalize its postquantum cryptography standards."
Pending
Grayscale predicts quantum computing will not significantly impact crypto prices in 2026.
"Grayscale put it bluntly in their 2026 outlook. Quantum computing will not meaningfully influence crypto prices next year."
Pending
Approximately 1.7 million BTC are held in early P2PK addresses from Bitcoin's initial years.
"Approximately 1.7 million BTC sit in early P2PK addresses from the Satoshi era, the first few years of Bitcoin's existence."
Correct