Published: 2025-12-24
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 2
Prediction
Topic
Status
JP Morgan predicts a 35% chance of a US and global recession in 2026.
"JP Morgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026."
Incorrect
The World Bank warns of the slowest global growth this decade since the 1960s.
"The World Bank is even glooier. They're warning that global growth this decade is on track to be the slowest since the 1960s."
Pending
Morgan Stanley forecasts core PCE to remain around 2.6% throughout 2026.
"Morgan Stanley forecasts core PCE hovering around 2.6% throughout 2026."
Pending
If Bitcoin falls to $60,000 in a recession, 30-40% of the network could become unprofitable to mine.
"If BTC drops to $60,000 in a recessionary environment, an estimated 30 to 40% of the network becomes unprofitable to operate."
Incorrect
MicroStrategy's 2030 convertible notes may be subject to cash redemption starting March 5, 2027.
"Starting on the 5th of March 2027, Strategy can be required to redeem the 2030 notes for cash if certain conditions aren't met."
Pending
MSCI is expected to decide in January 2026 whether to exclude digital asset treasuries from its major indices.
"In January 2026, Morgan Stanley Capital International or MSCI is expected to decide whether to exclude digital asset treasuries from its major indices."
Correct
The EU's MiCA regulation will be fully in force by July 2026.
"Micah, the markets in crypto assets regulation comes into full force by July 2026."
Pending
If Bitcoin is labeled as having a significant adverse environmental impact, EU Article 8 and Article 9 funds will be unable to invest in it.
"If Bitcoin gets labeled as having a significant adverse impact on the environment, [...] these funds can't touch it."
Pending
US and Dutch sanctions are likely to increase the fragility of the short-term semiconductor supply chain.
"the news is likely to accelerate US and Dutch sanctions on China, making the short-term supply chain more fragile, not less."
Correct
A naval blockade, sanctions, or earthquake in Taiwan could halt the supply of new mining hardware for an extended period.
"A sustained naval blockade, for example, would probably do the trick. A semiconductor specific sanctions package or even a major earthquake in Taiwan could freeze the flow of new mining hardware for months or even years."
Pending
NIST is expected to finalize its post-quantum cryptography standards in 2026.
"In 2026, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology is expected to finalize its postquantum cryptography standards."
Pending
Grayscale predicts quantum computing will not significantly impact crypto prices in 2026.
"Grayscale put it bluntly in their 2026 outlook. Quantum computing will not meaningfully influence crypto prices next year."
Pending