Jobs Report — Biggest Job Loss in Years, Fed Forced to Cut Rates

"The official jobs report by the government was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3rd. However, because the politicians could not agree on a government funding bill on time, the federal government has shut down. And consequently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the reports. Therefore, people have been relying on the ADP jobs reports, which at least gives us insights into the labor market situation in the private sector. And for the month of September, the ADP report shows that the private sector lost 32,000 jobs. This was the biggest decline in 2 and 1/2 years."

"So, they cut interest rates in September and they're most likely going to cut interest rates this month as well."

"The official jobs report by the government was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3rd. However, because the politicians could not agree on a government funding bill on time, the federal government has shut down. And consequently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the reports. Therefore, people have been relying on the ADP jobs reports, which at least gives us insights into the labor market situation in the private sector. And for the month of September, the ADP report shows that the private sector lost 32,000 jobs. This was the biggest decline in 2 and 1/2 years."

"So, they cut interest rates in September and they're most likely going to cut interest rates this month as well. So, I want to show you the odds of that happening. Now, if you're if you're an investor in the stock markets or precious metals or crypto, then you're going to like these odds because rate cuts means that an easier monetary policy is coming and that's going to boost asset prices. So, take a look at this. This is according to the CM Fed watch tool. The next Federal Reserve meeting is going to be on October 29th. Right now, there's a 96.2% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at this upcoming meeting, and there's a 3.8% chance that they're not going to cut rates. Okay. Right now, the Federal Funds interest rates at 4.25%. They're expected to cut the interest rates this month by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed funds rate down to 4.0%."

"Now, the meeting after October 29th, it's going to take place on December 10th, and there's an 86.3% chance that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates at that December meeting as well. So, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in October and in December, then the Fed funds interest rates going to fall from the current 4.25% to 3.75%."

"And I just want you to know that's a big deal because it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve is just going to continue to cut interest rates in 2026."

"So, I just want you to think about that because Jay Powell, who's the chair of the Federal Reserve, is going to end his term in May, right? And most likely what's going to happen, President Trump's most likely going to replace him with someone that's going to cut rates aggressively."

"they're most likely going to cut interest rates this month as well."

"So honestly I if you compare the numbers AI has not been responsible for that many job cuts relatively speaking. However I'm going to say this again this is just my opinion. A lot of people are debating whether AI is going to eliminate a massive quantity of jobs in the future. Okay. So I'll tell you this. This number may seem low right now but I believe that yes AI is going to eliminate a large quantity of jobs in the years ahead."

"there's a 96.2% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at this upcoming meeting"

"As you can see, those days are long gone and the situation is getting worse. But now look at how the situation has changed. There's now less than one job opening for every unemployed worker. It's clearly an employer's market and the situation is worse than right before the pandemic. Now, I want to help you understand and interpret the situation better. 1 to 1.5 is considered a normal and balanced labor market. For the past 25 years, we've actually been below that range for a while because I mean, think about what happened. We had the.com bubble that burst and then the labor market was recovering and then bam, the GFC happened with the housing market crash and then we're recovering from that and getting back up there to normal and then the pandemic happened. So one to 1.5 is considered normal. Above 1.5 is considered a tight labor market where it's hard to get workers. And then when you're below one that's considered to have a lot of slack and a recessionary environment. And as you can see, we are now below one. And take a look at the chart. We are trending downward."

"which would bring the Fed funds rate down to 4.0%."

"And this is why the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. They're looking at this and they're trying to revive the economy. They're trying to revive the labor market with an easier monetary policy."

"there's an 86.3% chance that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates at that December meeting as well."

"If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in October and in December, then the Fed funds interest rates going to fall from the current 4.25% to 3.75%."

"it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve is just going to continue to cut interest rates in 2026."

"President Trump's most likely going to replace him with someone that's going to cut rates aggressively."

"it's very likely job cut plans are going to surpass a million for the first time since 2020."

"I believe that yes AI is going to eliminate a large quantity of jobs in the years ahead."

"this whole concern of AI eliminating many jobs in the future is not overblown in my opinion. Rather, it's understated."

"There's now less than one job opening for every unemployed worker."

"when you're below one that's considered to have a lot of slack and a recessionary environment."

"we are now below one. And take a look at the chart. We are trending downward."