ilmscore | The Great Melt-Up Continues — Fed Rate Cuts to Fuel Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin

The Great Melt-Up Continues — Fed Rate Cuts to Fuel Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin

Published: 2025-09-19
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 10
Correct: 3
Incorrect: 3
Pending: 4
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates at both its October and December meetings in 2025.
"In the Fed's newest projection, they expect to cut interest rates again at both of those meetings in October and in December."
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
Incorrect
There is a 50% probability of the stock market increasing by mid-October following the September 17th rate cut.
"This means that by mid-October, there's a 50% chance that the stock market's going to go up compared to September 17th."
Stock Market Performance After Rate Cuts
Pending
There is a 77.3% probability of the stock market rising by mid-December following the rate cuts.
"By mid December, there's a 77.3% chance that the stock market's going to be up from around right now."
Stock Market Performance After Rate Cuts
Pending
By mid-March, there's a 72.7% chance of the stock market increasing by an average of 3.4% or a median of 5.5%.
"By mid-March, there's a 72.7% chance that the stock market's going to be up. On average, it goes up by 3.4%. The median return is 5.5%."
Stock Market Performance After Rate Cuts
Incorrect
Historically, the stock market has a 100% probability of being up one year after a similar setup to current rate cut conditions, with an average return of 13.9% and a median return of 9.8%.
"Based on history with a similar setup, there's a 100% chance that the market will be up one year from now. The average return is 13.9% and the median return is 9.8%."
Stock Market Performance One Year After Rate Cuts
Pending
A 20% or greater market decline would trigger the Federal Reserve to inject trillions of dollars, leading to a rapid V-shaped recovery.
"If the market were to go down 20% or more, then the Federal Reserve would be forced to rescue the stock market by printing trillions of dollars and it would be a quick V-shaped recovery."
Market Intervention
Incorrect
The US dollar has significant potential to weaken further, despite its already poor performance.
"There's so much more room to fall. So what I'm saying is that yeah, it's been bad, but it can get much worse. The dollar can weaken a lot more."
US Dollar Weakening
Pending
A weakening US dollar is predicted to be a significant positive factor for gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
"The dollar weakens, then that's going to be a big tailwind for gold, silver, and Bitcoin."
Gold Prices
Correct
Gold is predicted to thrive due to combined factors of interest rate cuts and record-high money supply.
"I believe that gold will continue to thrive in this environment because not only are they cutting interest rates, but the money supply is at record highs."
Gold Prices
Correct
Increased money printing will lead to a devaluation of the dollar, requiring more dollars to purchase essential goods, assets like gold and housing.
"As more money is printed, it's just going to take more devalued dollars to buy an ounce of gold. And it's not just gold, you know, as they print trillions of more dollars, it's going to take more dollars to buy everything from food to electricity, precious metal, housing, you name it."
Inflation Impact on Purchasing Power
Correct