CPI Inflation Report: Tariff Inflation is Just Beginning
Published: 2025-07-15
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-07-15
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Tariffs are expected to continue adding inflationary pressure for several months if current trends persist.
"the expectation is coming true and if it continues to develop as expected then tariffs will be adding inflationary pressure for a few months."
Pending
Significant reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to begin on August 1st.
"the reciprocal tariffs are going to begin on August 1st and these are going to be huge."
Pending
President Trump has the potential to postpone the August 1st tariffs again.
"However, as you're well aware, President Trump may postpone these tariffs yet again."
Pending
If the bond market experiences negative action again, Trump will likely postpone or cancel the tariffs.
"if we see this action happen again in the bond market then Trump is either going to have to postpone the tariffs or just call them off again."
Pending
A spike in the 30-year bond yield will force Trump to back off tariffs; a stable bond market will allow him to proceed.
"if we see a spike in the 30-year yield, and President Trump is going to be forced to back off the tariffs. But if the bond market is stable, then President Trump will be able to continue with the tariffs."
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to not cut interest rates at the July meeting.
"at the July meeting the Federal Reserve they're not going to cut interest rates and it's clearly reflected in the odds."
Pending
Following the inflation report, the probability of an interest rate cut by the September 17th meeting has decreased from 60.3% to 55.9%.
"Now, after the inflation report, the odds of an interest rate cuts decreased from 60.3% to 55.9%."
Pending
The upcoming Federal Reserve press conference will heavily focus on how tariffs are impacting inflation, influencing their interest rate cut decisions.
"the big theme of the next Federal Reserve meeting, at least the the press conference portion, is going to be how tariffs are affecting inflation because that's going to affect the Federal Reserve's decision on when they're going to cut interest rates."
Pending
Jerome Powell is expected to state that the labor market remains very strong.
"J Paul is going to say that the labor market is still very strong."
Pending
Significant reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to begin on August 1st.
"The biggest tariffs haven't even started yet. So the reciprocal tariffs are going to begin on August 1st and these are going to be huge."
Pending
President Trump is calling for a 3% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to low inflation.
"President Trump is saying because we have very low inflation, the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates right now and by 3% which is a massive amount."
Pending
Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at their July 30th meeting rose to 97.4%.
"Now, after the inflation reports, the odds of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates increased from 95.3% to 97.4%."
Pending
After the inflation report, the odds of an interest rate cut by the September 17th Federal Reserve meeting fell from 60.3% to 55.9%.
"Now, after the inflation report, the odds of an interest rate cuts decreased from 60.3% to 55.9%."
Pending
The upcoming Federal Reserve press conference will likely focus on how tariffs are impacting inflation and influencing the timing of potential interest rate cuts.
"And I can assure you that the big theme of the next Federal Reserve meeting, at least the the press conference portion, is going to be how tariffs are affecting inflation because that's going to affect the Federal Reserve's decision on when they're going to cut interest rates."
Pending
A spike in the 30-year Treasury yield will compel President Trump to postpone or cancel tariffs; a stable bond market will allow tariffs to proceed.
"So, if we see a spike in the 30-year yield, and President Trump is going to be forced to back off the tariffs. But if the bond market is stable, then President Trump will be able to continue with the tariffs."
Pending