CPI Inflation Report: Tariff Inflation is Just Beginning

"the expectation is coming true and if it continues to develop as expected then tariffs will be adding inflationary pressure for a few months."

"the reciprocal tariffs are going to begin on August 1st and these are going to be huge."

"However, as you're well aware, President Trump may postpone these tariffs yet again."

"if we see this action happen again in the bond market then Trump is either going to have to postpone the tariffs or just call them off again."

"if we see a spike in the 30-year yield, and President Trump is going to be forced to back off the tariffs. But if the bond market is stable, then President Trump will be able to continue with the tariffs."

"at the July meeting the Federal Reserve they're not going to cut interest rates and it's clearly reflected in the odds."

"the big theme of the next Federal Reserve meeting, at least the the press conference portion, is going to be how tariffs are affecting inflation because that's going to affect the Federal Reserve's decision on when they're going to cut interest rates."

"J Paul is going to say that the labor market is still very strong."