ilmscore | Prediction Details
"the risk premium like this generally hovered around 3.1% which basically means if treasuries are paying 5% you should expect to make 8.1% in the stock market for taking on extra risk but to today that risk premium is the lowest it's been since 2009 at just 1% and as Josh pek would say the math just ain't math in this case it's suggested that in order for the risk premium to return to its normal level stocks either need to fall or earnings need to go up by a lot alternatively the 10-year treasury yield could also fall but given some of the recent comments by Jerome Powell this is unlikely to happen anytime soon"
By Graham Stephan | November 1, 2023 | Pending
From video
BREAKING: The FED Pauses Rates, Housing Declines, Recession Cancelled 00:02:17 - 00:02:52
Interpreted Prediction
The current stock market risk premium is abnormally low, suggesting that stocks may need to fall or earnings need to increase significantly to normalize. A fall in treasury yields is considered unlikely by the speaker based on Jerome Powell's comments.

Prediction Details

Topic
Stock Market Risk Premium

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