ilmscore | Prediction Details
"the market has only returned between 8 and 12% a year, five times since 1926. That's it. Or basically, the stock market going up 8 to 12% happens just as often as the market going up by 40%. Not to mention, even more absurd is only 18% of market returns have been between 5 to 15% in any given year. And it's more common to see double-digit gains or losses in a single year than it is to see the market average."
By Graham Stephan | April 2, 2025 | Correct
From video
The 25% ‘Trump Recession’ Has Started - What You Must Know 00:12:02 - 00:12:33
Interpreted Prediction
The stock market's annual returns are highly variable; returns between 8-12% are as rare as 40% gains, and double-digit gains or losses are more common than the average return.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction discusses the rarity of 8-12% annual returns and the commonness of double-digit gains or losses. The annual returns for 2025 SPX was about 26%. While not within the 8-12% range, it aligns with the prediction that double-digit gains are more common.

Prediction Details

Ticker
SPX

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