From video
Interpreted Prediction
Speaker estimates a less than 1% chance of Jerome Powell being fired, a 19% chance of Powell complying with pressure to lower interest rates, and an 80% chance of the status quo remaining.
AI Evaluation Notes
Jerome Powell was not fired, did not lower interest rates due to pressure, and remained the Chair of the Federal Reserve throughout 2025. This contradicts the speaker's estimations of probabilities, with the status quo remaining having been predicted to have an 80% chance.