ilmscore | Recession Likelihood Predictions
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Accuracy

Recent Predictions

Total: 5
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 2
Pending: 3
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
A cessation of US government deficit spending in 2025 could trigger a recession 50% larger than the 2008 recession.
"if the United States government stopped their deficit spending in 2025, we would see a recession 50%..."
Oct 13, 2025
Incorrect
Recession odds doubled to 50% likelihood in 2025.
"Over the last few days, the odds of a recession have officially doubled, going as high as a 50% like..."
Apr 2, 2025
Incorrect
A recession is considered inevitable, not a question of if, but when.
"if history is any indication however it's not a question of if but when we'll see a recession"
Oct 17, 2023
Pending
When times are difficult, an inverted yield curve across any timeframe indicates a high likelihood of recession.
"whenever times are really worse you check any time frame it will show an inverted yield curve and th..."
Feb 12, 2023
Pending
The government's message is that while the first six months of the year might have been a recession (if GDP is negative), current data suggests the US may not be in one now.
"ultimately what the government is trying to tell us is that if we're looking in the first six months..."
Jul 25, 2022
Pending