US
US Economic Policy
Topic
N/A
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 29
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
The Trump administration is implementing policy changes to alter supply chains and increase domestic production of certain goods.
"the Trump administration is now working to change our supply chain, to change our policies here in t..."
Jan 3, 2026
Correct
The speaker warns that the current path of fiscal dominance is unsustainable and will ultimately lead to a catastrophe, advising those engaging in this strategy to profit quickly and exit the market.
"The problem with fiscal dominance is you've pulled the pin on a grenade and now we're just arguing a..."
Dec 5, 2025
Pending
The speaker believes that President Trump's initiatives involving gold and cryptocurrency are not actual solutions to the US debt crisis, but rather are intended to delay the inevitable due to the government's overspending problem.
"So, President Trump's plan, this these whole ideas of gold and crypto, they're not solutions to the ..."
Aug 29, 2025
Pending
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' signed into law by President Trump, is predicted to enact significant economic changes, including tax breaks and funding for deportations, effective retroactively from January 1, 2025.
"President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law. This big bill will bring some big ch..."
Jul 18, 2025
Pending
Arthur Hayes anticipates a Fed balance sheet expansion, Treasury buybacks, and stimulus from China will positively impact risk assets.
"Hayes has pointed to a likely Fed balance sheet expansion, Treasury buybacks, and a China stimulus v..."
Jul 3, 2025
Pending
There appears to be a strong consensus within Trump's inner circle that deregulation should be prioritized immediately.
"this suggests that if there's a consensus about any economic policies in Trump's inner circle that's..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The Trump administration may be offering deregulation to corporations as compensation for absorbing tariff-related costs, which could be offset by currency depreciation.
"this could be because deregulation is what the Trump administration is promising corporations in exc..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Deregulation is identified as the next key economic policy to monitor closely.
"it is therefore the next economic policy to watch very closely"
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The extreme nature of Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs might have been intended to induce economic weakness, preventing corporations from passing costs to consumers.
"deregulation to recap it's possible that the reason why Trump's liberation day tariffs were so over-..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Trump has reportedly scaled back some of his initial tariff threats, likely due to concerns about maintaining leverage in the financial markets during the transition.
"this is presumably why Trump has walked back many of his initial tariff threats over the last few we..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
President Trump's approach to economic policy is fundamentally shaped by his consistent concern for the health of financial markets.
"President Trump has shown repeated concern for the health of the financial markets throughout his ad..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Trump is expected to enact a new economic accord at Mara Lago in the coming months.
"It's assumed that Trump will enact a similar accord at Mara Lago in the coming months for the same r..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
A second Trump term will be more aggressive in reconfiguring international trading and financial systems.
"A second Trump term is likely to be even more forceful than the first when it comes to reconfiguring..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The US may withdraw from military organizations like NATO unless other countries increase their financial contributions.
"the US could back out of military organizations like NATO unless other countries pay more which is a..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Tariffs will be used as a tool for negotiating leverage before any shift to a soft dollar policy, as they will provide the US with more beneficial terms in any agreement with trade partners.
"tariffs are a tool for negotiating leverage as much as they are for revenue and fairness tariffs wil..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
It is unlikely that China will participate in a 'Mara Lago accord' due to current US-China relations, despite China being central to the US trade imbalance.
"The US and China aren't very friendly these days so the chances of President Xi flying to Florida to..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The US may cease securing key shipping routes unless compensated, as evidenced by current disruptions in the Red Sea.
"The US could also refuse to secure key shipping routes unless it's paid to do so which is also what ..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Trump's economic policy and presidential success are fundamentally linked to his concern for the health of financial markets.
"President Trump has shown repeated concern for the health of the financial markets throughout his ad..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
A significant portion of the tariff costs (20-30%) could be passed to US consumers, potentially causing social unrest, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates, and leading to a sell-off in US bonds.
"this means that the remaining 20 to 30% would be passed on to US consumers it goes without saying th..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The weakening of the US dollar reduces its negotiating power, potentially making a 'Mara Lago accord' unnecessary.
"in case you haven't noticed the US dollar has been falling fast and this gives the US less negotiati..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Deregulation is predicted to be a significant deflationary force that economists are currently overlooking, potentially mitigating inflation even with implemented tariffs.
"deregulation as one factor that could cause inflation to drop even if tariffs are implemented he eve..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Steven Moran had previously warned that initiating with high tariffs could lead to market uncertainty and economic weakness, advising gradual increases instead.
"the way Moran answered it made it sound like he was against the idea and this is expected given that..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
A potential strategy behind Trump's high tariffs might be to intentionally crash markets, encouraging investment in US bonds and lowering yields.
"many have speculated that Trump started off with high tariffs to intentionally crash the markets and..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The 'tariff shock' might have been intended to weaken the US economy, as warned by Moran.
"however it's still possible that the goal of the tariff shock was to do the other thing that Moran w..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
If companies cannot pass on tariff costs due to economic weakness, they will likely absorb the costs, leading to higher expenses and lower profits.
"in this scenario companies would be forced to swallow most of the costs of the tariffs in practical ..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
Trump's tariffs, coupled with economic weakness, may force corporations to absorb costs, thereby protecting consumers and the government from inflation with limited impact on the stock market.
"then Trump's wild tariffs are likely to result in economic weakness which will make it very difficul..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
A second Trump term is predicted to be more assertive in reshaping international trade and financial systems, with anticipated material volatility risks.
"a second Trump term is likely to be even more forceful than the first when it comes to reconfiguring..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The current tariff policy is viewed as a system reset, analogous to painful but potentially healing medicine or surgery for the long-term economic health of the US.
"this resets the system it's like medicine or surgery painful in the short term but potentially heali..."
Apr 4, 2025
Pending
Trump intends to pursue deregulation, particularly in financial services, which could benefit banks and potentially boost their stock prices.
"Trump has also talked pretty widely about deregulation for example deregulating the financial servic..."
Dec 30, 2024
Pending
President-elect Trump plans to implement broad tariffs globally to fund significant tax cuts in the US, representing a major economic shift for 2025.
"president-elect Trump has talked about imposing wide sweeping tariffs on countries around the world ..."
Dec 30, 2024
Pending